NATO tensions rise as Trump recalibrates US‑EU energy ties

Europe is noticing a significant change in Donald Trump and his administration's approach to traditional alliances. The USA has deprived Ukraine of not only financial aid and arms but also access to intelligence. Furthermore, the USA is hesitant to assist NATO countries that do not increase their defense budgets. The USA claims there is no alternative and that a "reset" in US-Russia relations is necessary. All of this is causing serious concern among other allies.

Europe relies on American military systems and equipment. The EU also relies on the United States as a major energy supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This cooperation is deepening as supplies from Russia are gradually reduced.

According to the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) data, the European Union purchased about 40 million tonnes of American LNG in 2024. According to statements from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the Union is ready to increase its gas purchases from the USA further, replacing Russian supplies.

As noted in December 2024 by Dr. Kamil Lipiński, Head of the Climate and Energy Team at the Polish Economic Institute, LNG deliveries accounted for about 37% of gas supplies to the EU in 2024. Most came from the USA, surpassing production from the North Sea and the Norwegian Continental Shelf (31%).

This raises the question of whether the EU can still confidently base its energy security on Trump's America, which increasingly behaves like a competitor rather than a partner. Meanwhile, after the energy crisis caused by the invasion of Ukraine, Europe learned firsthand that energy resources are currently as potent a political tool as military capabilities.

Dr. Szymon Kardaś from the European Council on Foreign Relations acknowledges that the idea of a reset with Russia, as mentioned on Thursday by Keith Kellogg, the US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, must be terrifying. The rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, while simultaneously cooling relations with the EU, should be concerning. Nevertheless, he would not equate the current gas cooperation with the USA to Europe's recent heavy dependence on Russian resources.

In this matter, I would not be afraid of Trump. He is pragmatic, and gas contracts with Europe are beneficial for the USA. Moreover, there is a key difference between the functioning and specifics of the gas market in the USA and how it is managed in Russia, where the Kremlin or even Putin himself could order Gazprom to shut off the valve. Gas contracts with the USA are with companies, not the White House. Although the administration can enact fiscal or regulatory actions that may complicate contracts, there is no such risk as in relations with the Russian Federation - argues Dr. Kardaś.

The development of infrastructure for receiving liquefied gas has opened up a range of import possibilities for Europe from various directions. Gas is imported into the EU from the USA, Qatar, Algeria, and still from Russia - although the Union plans to cut off LNG imports from Russia by 2027.

As Dr. Kardaś reminds us, the EU has largely learned its lessons by altering its market and developing supply routes. While the role of the USA as an LNG supplier is increasing, there is still no discussion of dependency. In 2023, American gas accounted for 20% of imports, approximately 63 billion cubic metres. In comparison, the EU's dependence on gas from Russia in 2021 reached 45%, translating to 155 billion cubic metres, he argues.

However, in his opinion, Europe holds a powerful card but still plays it too timidly. This refers to the feedback from such an arrangement and Trump’s transactional approach to politics.

In 2023, deliveries to Europe constituted 53% of the entire LNG export from the United States. This means that Europe as a whole was the most important market for the USA. This is an argument often forgotten, but it should appeal to Trump - emphasizes the analyst.

Additionally, the changing market works in favour of Europeans. According to forecasts by the International Gas Union, which represents the global gas industry, the LNG market is expected to develop dynamically over the coming years, significantly increasing production capacities. The United States has announced doubling LNG exports by 2030, which is an additional 70 million tonnes of liquefied gas.

- Someone will have to buy this gas. American exporters will compete with companies in Qatar, Australia, and Africa. The increase in supply will translate into lower prices. This is another argument that the EU market is necessary for America - adds Dr. Kardaś.

Dr. Kamil Lipiński from PIE emphasized that the Union could have greater market power if member countries did not sign gas contracts individually, but jointly.

- In this context, an interesting proposal to strengthen Europe's bargaining power on the gas market appeared in a report by Mario Draghi, who proposed the establishment of a joint EU LNG buyer to negotiate contracts with major players in the USA, Qatar, and other countries - recalled Lipiński.

LNG supplies allow for flexible approaches to gas imports. Unlike pipelines, they do not imply a commitment to a single supplier. According to Dr. Kardaś, however, Europe should continuously develop its ability to obtain energy resources from different suppliers using different routes, including pipelines.

Norway is a reliable ally, already accounting for over 30% of gas imports to the EU. He lists other directions we can benefit from, such as obtaining gas from Azerbaijan or Turkey.

As he emphasizes, diversification is key to independence. We should follow the path of China, which has a smart energy policy. On one hand, they expanded pipelines to Central Asia and established several new LNG terminals. This way, they maintained balance and did not become dependent on gas from Russia or other regions, notes Dr. Kardaś.

We can also draw inspiration from Japan. The Japanese government purchases stakes in foreign LNG ventures in exchange for preferential gas supplies. This model is on the EU agenda, which assumes European companies could invest in LNG projects.