North Korean arms and troops poised for 2025 Russian aid

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, mentioned that in 2025, North Korea will provide Russia with similar military support to what was provided in 2024. In 2024, Pyongyang supplied Moscow with about 120 M1989 "Koksan" artillery systems with a calibre of 170 mm (6.7 inches) and 120 multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) M-1991 with a calibre of 240 mm (9.4 inches), along with nearly 150 KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles. According to Budanov, these numbers are anticipated to be similar in 2025.

The head of Ukrainian intelligence also noted that he does not expect "to see many new ground forces." However, he did not provide a specific number of North Korean soldiers who may arrive in Ukraine, nor did he specify the timing of when this might occur. Instead, Budanov mentioned that so far, about one-third of the 12,000 Koreans sent to Kursk have died, meaning approximately 8,000 individuals are still able to continue fighting. Such estimates are difficult to verify.

The New York Times, citing an anonymous high-ranking U.S. defence official, recently reported that new reinforcements from North Korea might appear in Kursk "within the next two months." Analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) share a similar view. In their latest report, they note that in the coming months, North Korea will deploy a new military contingent in Russia, likely allowing for maintaining the current pace and intensity of infantry attacks in the Kursk region.

Interestingly, ISW also suggests that "the entirety of the North Korean contingent in Russia may be killed or wounded in action by about mid-April 2025 at their current casualty rate, and a new North Korean deployment — whether intended to increase the current grouping or rotate out existing forces — is likely intended to sustain Russia’s tempo of operations despite heavy losses of about 30,000 - 45,000 causalities (combined killed and wounded) per month."

According to ISW analysts, the new North Korean forces deployed in Russia are unlikely to significantly impact Russian operations. However, they will probably face the same high casualty rates and complications in cooperating with Russian forces as the current North Korean contingent, provided that the Russian command continues to use North Korean forces in a similar manner as before.

North Korea has supplied Russia with the aforementioned M1989 "Koksan" artillery systems, M1991 rocket systems, and KN-23 ballistic missiles. The M1989 "Koksan" is a North Korean self-propelled gun with a calibre of 170 mm (6.7 inches), designed in the 1980s to address the need for long-range artillery capable of shelling strategic targets, including the South Korean capital, Seoul. The range of the "Koksan" howitzer, mounted on a tracked chassis, varies from 39 km (24 miles) to even 59 km (37 miles), depending on the ammunition used. In his conversation with The War Zone, Budanov noted, "The 170 mm artillery has powerful ammunition and good capabilities."

The M1991 rocket systems are relatively mysterious multiple rocket launchers. Experts suspect they are an advancement of Soviet rocket technologies, such as the BM-30 Smerch. The rockets fired from the M1991 can reach up to 200 km (124 miles), allowing strikes on strategic targets deep within enemy territory. Due to the mobile platforms based on wheeled vehicles, the M1991 can quickly change positions, complicating enemy counteractions. Regarding this weapon, Budanov remarked, "The 240 mm MLRS are like any other heavy system. They cause substantial issues on the front lines."

KN-23 ballistic missiles are among North Korea's newest missile arsenal elements. First publicly unveiled in 2019, they quickly captured the attention of military analysts globally due to their resemblance to the Russian Iskander missile systems. The KN-23 is a tactical short-range ballistic missile characterized by flight manoeuvrability and a low trajectory, making it difficult for missile defence systems to intercept. The range of this missile is between 400 km (248 miles) and 600 km (373 miles), depending on the version. The KN-23 can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and is based on mobile launchers.