North Korea's $20B (27B CAD) gamble: Fueling Russia's war effort
North Korea's involvement in Russia's war with Ukraine has garnered it a profit of over $20 billion (27 billion CAD), reported the American publication "Newsweek" on Wednesday, citing a report from the South Korean think tank Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA).
According to the report, the majority of the economic benefits received by North Korea come from supplying ammunition to Russia. Additionally, Pyongyang has benefited from sending thousands of soldiers to fight against Ukraine. It is estimated that approximately 4,000 military personnel have died on the Russian front out of the 11,000 North Koreans sent there. They mainly fight in Russia's Kursk region.
KIDA noted that North Korea likely prefers to receive "material and technical assistance" from Moscow in exchange for its support.
The authors of the report emphasized the urgent need to end the war in Ukraine and take actions to block military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
"Newsweek" noted that the conclusions of the KIDA report align with analyses from the Open Source Center (OSC) and Reuters, which estimate that North Korea sent over 15,800 containers of ammunition to Russia between August 2023 and March 2025.
OSC and Reuters used satellite imagery and detailed 3D images for their calculations. It is estimated that 64 shipments by four Russian ships likely contained between 4.2 and 5.8 million rounds of ammunition from North Korea.
Difficulties on the front of the war with Ukraine and the impact of Western sanctions forced the Kremlin to seek economic and military assistance from partners, including China, Iran, and North Korea.
how North Korean assistance reaches Russia
An investigation by the British think tank Open Source Center (OSC) and Reuters revealed that as of October 2023, North Korea provided Russia with at least 4 million rounds of artillery ammunition. Additionally, the supplies included mortar shells and ballistic missiles, which have been falling on Ukrainian cities.
The ammunition reaches Russia by sea. Container ships sail from the port of Nampo to the Russian ports of Danube and Vostochny in the Far East. Satellite image monitoring by OSC indicates that in the past 20 months, approximately 16,000 containers carrying various types of ammunition have been unloaded at the Danube and Vostochny ports. The cargo from the container ships is loaded onto trains, which deliver the ammunition to warehouses near the front line.
As Reuters recalled, Russia began to gain an advantage at the end of 2023, when the war shifted from dynamic to positional. Drones and artillery support infantry during assaults. Ukraine quickly exhausted its ammunition stockpiles, and its allies, including the United States, were unable to supply it with enough ammunition. At the same time, Russia, also facing shortages in artillery ammunition, received support from North Korea.
Analyzing satellite images showing container ships with ammunition, experts from OSC, considering the size of the ships and containers and their capacity, created 3D models to estimate the cargo. They estimated that at least 15,809 containers with North Korean ammunition have already reached Russia. One ship carries about 250 containers, each containing up to 330 ammunition units.
Reuters explained that the most shipments to Russia occurred in January 2024, when seven shipments were detected from North Korea. Typically, there are three shipments per month.
Russian reports accessed by Reuters indicated that Russian artillery units on some sections of the front used only North Korean ammunition. This pertains to 152 mm and 122 mm calibre ammunition.
Quoted by Reuters, Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka suggested that Russia's ability to sustain attack levels at the end of 2023 was due to North Korean support. Furthermore, "it allowed the Russians to maintain an offensive posture and constant pressure on Ukrainian forces throughout most of 2024 into 2025," assessed Muzyka.
