Ozone recovery: MIT research confirms healing on track by 2035
New research conducted by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology with support from NASA has demonstrated that human-caused damage is gradually being mitigated—the ozone layer is returning to its original state. This indicates that global efforts are worthwhile, even if they take years.
We have been hearing about the ozone hole for years, and finally, it is evident that international actions taken nearly 40 years ago are working gradually. New calculations suggest it could disappear completely by 2035 if we maintain current standards and continue to reduce CFCs. Ozone is crucial because it acts like a cloak shielding the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation from the Sun. This radiation is dangerous enough to damage the genetic material of cells, potentially causing cancerous changes in humans and animals.
Reduction of harmful substances significantly heals the ozone layer
The latest results from scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) show that the ozone recovery is proceeding smoothly. The researchers affirm that the "healing" process of the Antarctic ozone layer is directly due to global efforts to reduce ozone-depleting substances. The research findings were recently published in the scientific journal "Nature".
The MIT team of scientists has previously observed signs of ozone recovery. However, the new study, for the first time, with high statistical certainty, demonstrates that it is indeed the reduction of ozone-depleting substances, not other factors, such as weather variability or increased greenhouse gas emissions into the stratosphere, that is the main cause of this regeneration.
Unrecoverable health effects discovered as early as the 1990s
In the Earth's stratosphere, ozone is a naturally occurring gas acting as a sort of sunscreen, protecting the planet from the Sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation. In 1985, scientists discovered a seasonally appearing "hole" in the ozone layer over Antarctica. The cause was chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs—chemical substances then used in refrigeration, air conditioning, insulation, and aerosol propellants. When CFCs rise into the stratosphere, they can decompose ozone under specific seasonal conditions. This temporary depletion of the ozone layer suddenly allowed UV rays to reach the surface, leading to skin cancer and other adverse health effects.
They generated "parallel worlds" for the study
In their new study, the MIT team applied a quantitative approach and "fingerprinting" method, which scientists borrowed from climate change research, to identify the cause of the Antarctic ozone layer's recovery. The researchers began by simulating the Earth's atmosphere and generated many "parallel worlds" under different initial conditions.
For example, they conducted simulations assuming no increase in greenhouse gases or ozone-depleting substances. In these conditions, any changes in ozone should result from natural weather variability. They compared these simulations to observe how the Antarctic stratosphere's ozone changes in response to different initial conditions.
The ozone hole will disappear by 2035
The team found a pattern of ozone recovery specifically related to descending ozone-depleting substances. They then sought confirmation in actual satellite observations of the ozone hole from 2005 to 2025. In 2018, this evidence was the strongest, allowing the team to state with 95-percent certainty that the ozone recovery was mainly due to the reduction of ozone-depleting substances.
MIT Professor Susan Solomon predicts that if the trend continues, the long-awaited time when the ozone layer remains intact and the ozone hole disappears forever may soon arrive. If human efforts to limit CFCs continue, this will likely happen by 2035. Changes can be tracked on the NASA observatory website.
