Putin's strategic pause: Trump's role in ceasefire delay

On Thursday, Vladimir Putin spoke about the US-Ukrainian agreements regarding a possible truce in Ukraine. He assured that he supports the truce, but noted that Moscow is concerned about a "lasting peace." He stated that such a peace can only be achieved by addressing the "root causes of the crisis," although he did not explain what he believes those causes are. Putin also suggested that the 30-day truce might give Ukraine time to organize a new mobilization and receive newly delivered Western weapons. As a result, Russia is expected to base further negotiation steps on the situation at the front.

After the Russian leader's speech, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke out. - Putin, of course, is afraid to say directly to President Trump that he wants to continue this war, he wants to kill Ukrainians - assessed Zelensky. He believes Putin is purposefully delaying his response to the point where making "normal decisions" is "impossible." In a similar fashion, Ukrainians perceive Putin's declarations.

- I think that now Vladimir Putin's game with Donald Trump has begun. The Russian dictator will try to prolong the negotiation phase before the ceasefire and the possibility of ending the war as much as possible. Putin at the Kremlin said "yes" to Trump, but he thinks otherwise - says WP Crimean political scientist Nedim Useinov, an expert from the think tank The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF).

And as he emphasizes, Putin did not refuse Trump so as not to offend his pride.

- The American president took advantage of this in the media, admitting that positive promises came from Putin. And it seemed that all sides were satisfied - our interlocutor assesses.

Useinov assesses that the most important thing is the Russian leader's declaration that he will continue military actions.

- Putin boasted about successes on the front, including expelling Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, which will now allow Russian forces to transfer significant numbers to Donbas. He also "passed the ball" to the Ukrainian side by putting unacceptable conditions for Kyiv on the table. And he waits for Trump's move towards Ukraine - says the Crimean political scientist.

According to the Crimean political scientist, Putin's game may last until Russia attempts to close the Donbas border and conquer the entire region.

- Later, he may focus on the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russians also consider their land. And then, with Ukraine on its knees, he will try to impose peace on his terms. This is Putin's thinking. Whether he will succeed is unknown. However, we know that we definitely do not have any prelude to a quick ceasefire - believes Useinov.

And as he adds, now everything depends on how Trump behaves.

- If he is consistent with what he has said, he will quickly realize Putin's game, figure it out, and consequently introduce stricter sanctions and implement new arms deliveries to Ukraine sent by his administration - says the Crimean political scientist.

And as the Crimean political scientist reminds us, we must avoid a situation similar to the one with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Trump's first presidency.

- Trump then started talks with Kim regarding North Korea's nuclear program, made several gestures, gained a temporary victory, announced great success in the media, yet in reality, nothing changed the warming of relations. In regimes like North Korea or Russia, dictators remain in power practically for life. In the United States, the president has "only" a four-year term - comments Useinov.

- Remember that for Putin, Trump is a temporary phenomenon, whose presence in the White House he wants to leverage for Russia's benefit, to gain as much as possible. Today Trump is here, but in four years he might not be. And Putin will still be there - sums up our interlocutor.