Russia amplifies NATO threat claims amid Baltic tensions
Main Russian propagandists have amplified the threats from Nikolai Patrushev, an adviser to Putin. He claims that NATO is practicing scenarios involving the takeover of the Kaliningrad region. "Russia fears losing control over the Baltic Sea routes and restrictions on the so-called shadow fleet's operations," explains Dr. Wojciech Siegień.
Much of the information shared by Russian media and government representatives is likely not true. Such reports may be part of an information war initiated by the Russian Federation.
"For the second year in a row, NATO is holding the largest exercises in decades near our borders, where it is practicing scenarios of offensive actions over a large area—from Vilnius to Odesa, the takeover of the Kaliningrad region, the blocking of shipping in the Baltic and Black Seas, and preventive strikes on the permanent bases of Russian nuclear deterrent forces," stated Nikolai Patrushev in a recently published interview with the Russian agency TASS.
The former head of the Federal Security Service currently advises Vladimir Putin. In an extensive interview, he claims to "see the outlines of victory in the operation in Ukraine." He states that "Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and many other European capitals are deploying the war machine against Russia", while "revelling in scenarios of nuclear apocalypse." He mentioned three names: Keir Starmer (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom), Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), and Mark Rutte (NATO Secretary-General), considering them the main threats to Russia's security.
After the interview was published, Patrushev's claims were picked up by leading Russian propagandists, such as Vladimir Solovyov. Retired General Andrei Gurulev, now a politician, wrote on Telegram that "the war with Ukraine must be won completely, or another one will break out." He also complained that threats are coming from all directions against Russia.
Why is Russia threatening and making accusations?
Dr. Wojciech Siegień, a Russia expert, notes that Patrushev's comments are closely related to Russian concerns about controlling maritime routes, which are strategically crucial for Russian trade. – Kaliningrad is close to Poland, but the message is primarily targeted at the United Kingdom and other EU countries capable of controlling the exit from the Baltic Sea basin – says Siegień.
He emphasizes that Baltic ports are crucial for the Kremlin—they are used, among others, to supply the Kaliningrad region and to service the port in St. Petersburg.
– Russia carefully observes NATO's exercise scenarios and fears their potential consequences. Especially since part of its "shadow fleet," tankers transporting Russian oil despite sanctions, operates here – adds Siegień.
What is NATO doing? Here's what irritates Russia
Patrushev did not specify which NATO exercises he was referring to. However, in 2025, the Alliance conducted several significant maneuvers. Among the largest were "Steadfast Dart 25" in February—with the participation of about 10,000 soldiers from nine member states. The exercises aimed to test NATO's ability to quickly deploy forces in Romania and Bulgaria, without direct US support.
In March, the "Joint Viking 2025" operation took place in Norway—exercises involving 10,000 soldiers from Norway, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, and the US. They trained in protecting NATO's northern flank.
Meanwhile, until the end of April, there was "Baltic Guard"—exercises involving patrolling areas where pipelines, power cables, and fibre optics run. This was a response to sabotage incidents near Finland and Estonia, for which Russia was suspected. NATO made no secret of the exercise goals and, on the contrary, published official communications in Russian.
At the end of March, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Putin: – If anyone were to miscalculate and think they can get away with an attack on Poland or on any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our reaction will be devastating.
Russian politicians have repeatedly frightened their citizens with the imminent entry of NATO into Kaliningrad. In the summer of 2022, such rumours sparked panic in trade, leading to rising prices and stockpiling of essentials like sugar and fuel. Russian companies suffered from the absence of tourists. The governor of the Kaliningrad region held a press conference to avert a crisis.
Now our main task is to assure the whole country that you can fly to Kaliningrad safely. Poles with machine guns are not wandering the streets here. Sometimes I just read some nonsense. I read handouts from the Polish media and think: What kind of brainwashing is this? – a Russian official stated at the time.
