Russia-Belarus military pact heightens tensions near Poland
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko are set to sign a military cooperation agreement. The Polish government is concerned about who will command the Belarusian army and whether it might be used in the war in Ukraine.
Many of the reports from Russian and Belarusian media or officials are part of propaganda. These reports are part of the information war conducted by the Russian Federation.
On Friday, December 26, two days before the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Union State agreement between Belarus and Russia, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will finalize a significant military cooperation agreement - as reported in “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.”
It has already been established that, among other developments, three joint military training centres will be created: in the Kaliningrad region, near Grodno at the Polish border, and in the Nizhny Novgorod region, which will essentially function as military bases.
Belarusian battalions at the Polish border
The military agreement between Russia and Belarus includes the deployment of Belarusian battalions at the Ukrainian and Polish borders. According to Kyiv, this is an attempt to reconnoitre the area.
The alliance between these countries also envisions joint military operations and Russian support for Belarus. The intensification of military integration raises concerns for the Polish side, which is closely monitoring the situation.
The tightening of cooperation worries NATO
On Sunday, the agreement on the mutual recognition of visas and stateless persons' documents by Russia and Belarus will come into effect. These developments are viewed on NATO’s eastern flank as a step towards a significant reduction of security in the region. The European Commission fears an escalation of the migration crisis might also be possible. This ambitious Russia-Belarus agreement is expected to weaken Minsk.
The cooperation between Russia and Belarus is strengthening, resulting in the approval of 28 union programs by Putin and Lukashenko. The plans include not only military actions but also economic integration for both countries. Among the priority actions is the further expansion of the joint military grouping, aimed at enhancing the regional security of the Union of Belarus and Russia.
Polish government on secret provisions
The Polish government asserts that the key issue is the secret provisions of the agreement regarding the principles of commanding the Belarusian military and whether it might become part of the Russian army with the possibility of engaging in the war in Ukraine without Lukashenko's consent. Russia already exercises control over Belarusian special services.
However, this viewpoint is dismissed in an interview with Interia by an analyst from the Centre for Eastern Studies on Belarus.
- There are no realistic grounds for sending Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine. As long as there is no large Russian troop presence in Belarus - and there currently isn't, with no indication this will change - the Belarusian army will not strike Ukraine because it is too weak, and the society would not support such an attack. President Lukashenko is well aware of this - commented Kamil Kłysiński.
