Russia ramps up pressure in Donbas: Fears for Pokrovsk intensify

On Monday, Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov announced that by 2024, Russian troops had captured nearly 4,500 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This is relatively small, as the smallest Polish province, Opolskie, is more than twice as large. However, it's undeniable that Russians have been making gradual advances daily, cutting off more and more parts of Ukrainian land.

General Roman Polko, notes that Russia is not engaging in spectacular operations.

"They do not exhibit any special mastery in the art of war. Russia has adopted a strategy of prolonged 'grinding,' sending 'cannon fodder' to the front. If they run out of their own, they buy it from North Korea, which is shocking. What Poland and Ukraine should fear are not bombs or spectacular tank division raids, but the actions of 'little green men' and provocations that occur continuously at our border," says Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit and former deputy head of the National Security Bureau.

The situation in Donbas is particularly challenging now. On Saturday afternoon, the Ukrainian portal DeepState published photos of the Russian flag on the city hall building in Kurakhove, which had 18,000 inhabitants before the war. "The enemy continues to advance into Kurakhove, gradually taking over the central part of the city," the report said. The photo is a still from a video recorded by Russian military bloggers. It shows Russians removing Ukrainian symbols and capturing several Ukrainian soldiers.

On Monday morning, the Russian state agency RIA Novosti reported that the Kurakhove direction "is probably the 'hottest' in recent months." It stated that "no more than 20% of the city remains under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."

However, it is not only Russian propagandists who report on the progress of Putin's army. The Ukrainian side openly admits that the situation is serious.

"The situation in the direction of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove is difficult. I am grateful to all units that destroy the occupier there. Special thanks also to our soldiers in the Kursk region—they are needed there to achieve the right results for Ukraine, for Ukrainians—in diplomacy," said President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Sunday address.

According, negotiation goals are crucial for both sides.

"The Russian side has thrown everything onto the front to improve its position and use Donald Trump's pressure on Ukraine to sign a ceasefire agreement," says Gen. Roman Polko. However, in his opinion, any ceasefire would be used by Putin to consolidate his hold on the territories already captured and return to his goal of expanding the sphere of influence in a few years.

Meanwhile, according to Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, "Only stopping military actions can save Ukraine now."

On Sunday, reports emerged that the Ukrainian side refused to talk with Viktor Orban about a holiday ceasefire. Skrzypczak is not surprised by this stance.

"I am not surprised they refused to talk with Orban since he is an ally and patron of Putin. I would rather expect talks with someone more neutral. To me, Orban is a collaborator, so Ukraine had the right to reject his expectations. We should also view it suspiciously; no collaboration with Orban should be allowed," says Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces.

Kurakhove is about 40 kilometres south of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub for the Ukrainian army. Pokrovsk, which had a pre-war population of 60,000, could be the next city on the Russian path. Austrian military expert Markus Reisner from the Theresian Military Academy stated two days ago that if Pokrovsk falls, all Ukrainian defences in Donbas could collapse.

According to Gen. Polko, the potential capture of Pokrovsk by the Russians would be significant but not decisive. "It's not the capture of Kyiv or Lviv. Let's look at the entire front. Despite tactical successes by the Kremlin, it is still far from breaking the stalemate in this war of attrition. Even the capture of Pokrovsk will not indicate any breakthrough is happening," believes Gen. Polko.

Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak holds a different view. He believes the Russians have the potential to break through the Ukrainian army's defences and that on multiple fronts simultaneously.

"The Ukrainians lack the reserve potential to prevent a disaster in these areas. Because it will be a disaster. Piercing through the defences in these directions will give the Russians significant room to maneuver because behind these towns, Ukrainians have no prepared fortifications or troops to stop a new Russian army assault," says Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak.

Waldemar Skrzypczak emphasizes that the Russians have changed tactics. "They no longer assault cities; instead, they encircle them, cutting off logistics. In this way, the Ukrainian army loses its ability to conduct defence," says Skrzypczak.

A map published by the DeepState portal confirms his words. "The Russians broke through to Zelenovka near Kurakhove and dangerously approached the road leading to the city from Zaporizhzhia," analyzes the Ukrainian portal Strana on Telegram. From Zelenovka to the highway leading from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia, there are just under 2.4 kilometres left.

"In this direction, the Russians are breaking through the defence, and there is currently no chance for the Ukrainians to stop this Russian army assault," says Skrzypczak.

Roman Polko recalls Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi's words that the best solution for Ukraine would be to arm its army with modern technology and equipment.

"If that had happened immediately, this war of attrition would probably not have lasted as long. And now, at the end of the third year of fighting, it's evident that, unfortunately, the West shows its weakness because it blocked support for Ukraine. Ukraine itself is bleeding," concludes Gen. Roman Polko.