Russian presence in Syria: Negotiating influence amidst risk
A video has appeared on social media, revealing that significant equipment remains at the Russian airbase in Hmeimim, Latakia province. Various types of aircraft and air defence systems are visible, although some analysts believe that the extensive footage captured by a drone suggests the Russians cannot feel entirely secure there.
The base in Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase are the two most crucial facilities in Syria from the Kremlin's perspective, as they enable Russia to maintain its influence in the region.
Following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, chaos engulfed Syria, prompting the Russians to relocate some of their equipment to safer areas. Yet, as the recent video confirms, they still have significant assets at risk.
Russian planes at the Humajmim airbase in Latakia province
The shared video clearly shows the airbase currently used by the Russians, which houses strike aircraft, including Su-24 front-line bombers, Su-34 tactical bombers, and Su-30/35 multirole fighters.
The video also demonstrates that the Russians maintain transport aircraft (An-72, An-26, and Il-76) at the airbase, along with helicopters. Notably, there are multi-role Mi-8 helicopters and attack Ka-52 helicopters, which are among the newer models produced by Russian manufacturers (since 2008). These helicopters feature a distinctive coaxial rotor system and are equipped with a 30 mm automatic cannon, in addition to rockets or bombs on six pylons. These can include laser-guided anti-tank Vikhr missiles.
The Russians would like to remain in Syria
The Kremlin is making significant efforts to negotiate with the new Syrian authorities to continue using this facility. Bloomberg reports that a preliminary agreement has been reached with the Syrian rebels from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group.
Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov stated that Russia hopes to retain the bases and continue "fighting international terrorism." He mentioned that a final decision regarding the future of Russian forces in Syria has not yet been made.
Analysts discussing the released video seem divided. Some interpret it as a sign of the Kremlin's relative confidence. Others suggest that the proximity of a drone to the Russian base indicates it is no longer a safe location for them and will not become one, even if deals with HTS are made.
