Russia's era of influence in Syria ends as troops withdraw
Russia may have to forget about military bases in Syria for at least a dozen years, according to a Russian military analyst. He believes that the new government, remembering the Russian bombings, will not allow such facilities on its territory. At the same time, there are many signs that it will want to establish relations with Russia.
The Russian army had been in Syrian territory for nearly ten years after intervening in the armed conflict to support dictator Bashar al-Assad. According to the agreement, the Russians were expected to remain in the country until at least 2066. However, following the regime change, they began to withdraw.
Military analyst Kirill Mikhailov, in an analysis for the portal Mediazona, stated that Russia will need to completely pull out from the Middle Eastern country.
"Considering Russia's extensive history with the former opposition—primarily bombings—it is unlikely that the new Syrian government will tolerate Russian bases on its territory," Mikhailov stated.
"The plan was buried"
Shortly after the dictator was overthrown, rumours surfaced that Russia might consider a plan to create the "People's Republic of Latakia" in Syria's coastal territories. However, given the local population's attitude towards the Assad dynasty, Mikhailov assessed that "the plan was buried before it was invented."
He also added that the withdrawal of Russian troops is "the best of all bad decisions" by the Kremlin. According to him, Russia will likely have to forget about bases in Syria "probably for several decades."
He noted that all indications are that Syria does not intend to hinder the evacuation, as it does not want to engage in "open confrontation" with other countries. "The priority is, of course, the rebuilding of Syria," the analyst says.
What about Russian actions in Africa?
Meanwhile, the change of authorities in Damascus is a setback for Russian operations in Africa. Bases in Syria were used as logistical hubs for supplying mercenaries operating on the continent.
"This significantly limits Russia's influence in the Middle East and also brings into question Russia's influence in Africa, where Russia continues to support the same regime of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, several juntas in the Sahel region in northwestern Africa—where various Russian mercenaries actually assist them in fighting against Al-Qaeda and Tuareg separatists. Moreover, there are other projects such as in the Central African Republic and Sudan," Mikhailov lists.
"Both logistical and political issues remain unresolved. This doesn't mean that the entire architecture of Russian presence in Africa will collapse tomorrow, but at least it has become a big question mark," the expert stated.
Source: Mediazona
