Russia's high-stakes gambit: Can Putin sway Trump on Ukraine?
According to unofficial reports from The Moscow Times, Russia aims to remove Zelensky, hoping that his potential successor will be more inclined towards territorial concessions. Russian expert Dr. Wojciech Siegień believes that Putin has overstepped with his demands, and Trump will realize he is being played.
In a speech given a few days ago aboard the nuclear submarine Archangelsk, docked in the Murmansk region, Vladimir Putin insisted that "democratic elections" in Ukraine could only be held under temporary external administration led by the UN and the USA. The Russian independent service, The Moscow Times, describes the context of this extraordinary demand.
According to sources close to the Kremlin, Russian diplomacy is focused on "discrediting Zelensky in Trump's eyes so that Washington could pressure Ukraine and its authorities to hold presidential elections." According to the Russian scenario, Zelensky could lose the elections. Russia hopes that its successor will be more willing to compromise with Moscow. Zelensky will not agree to any territorial concessions. We must address the core issue: remove him, a source told journalists.
- The boss (editor's note: how officials refer to Putin) personally dislikes Zelensky because he dared to challenge him publicly. One of our main goals is for Zelensky to no longer be able to rule Ukraine. Therefore, we systematically promote the narrative of his illegitimacy and the need for elections - a source explained to the service.
Putin raises the stakes. What does this mean for peace negotiations?
Moscow is also trying to gain support for its plan from China and India. At the same time, the Kremlin does not want a ceasefire, even in exchange for a possible deal with Donald Trump, fearing that any concession would be considered a victory for Zelensky.
- In this way, Russia tries to up the demands, but perhaps Putin has overbid. The longer Russia drags out peace talks on Ukraine, the more it risks losing the favour of US President Donald Trump - comments Dr. Wojciech Siegień, an expert in Russian propaganda analysis and author of the podcast "Eastern Bloc" on the Krytyka Polityczna service.
- This is not a new plan. The Kremlin has been emphasizing Zelensky's illegitimacy for months and seeks to organize presidential elections that could lead to a change of power in Kyiv. Many polls show increasing ratings for the Ukrainian president. From his point of view, such a proposal is unacceptable as it succumbs to Russian demands - adds Dr. Siegień.
It should be noted that recently in WP we described that 57 per cent of Ukrainians support Zelensky's current actions. Forty-four per cent of respondents believe that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction. These results represent a significant increase compared to December 2024.
According to Dr. Siegień, Russia balances between attempts to weaken Zelensky and the risk of losing potential favour with Trump. Collaborators use a mix of political and propaganda strategies to achieve goals in Ukraine. After several weeks of negotiations, this time, Donald Trump will realize the Russians are playing him.
On Sunday, the president personally called American TV NBC News to declare that he is "very angry" and "furious" with President Vladimir Putin for attacking the credibility of the Ukrainian president and calling for the creation of new leadership in Kyiv.
Trump makes such gestures in particularly important circumstances. At this point, the blame for the lack of progress in the negotiations falls on the Russian side. An interlocutor indicates that they should now be under pressure from the USA.
Kremlin plans for the end of the war in Ukraine
According to The Moscow Times, the Kremlin still envisions two possible scenarios for achieving its goals. The first is the resignation of power in Ukraine, which would lead to the "restructuring of the Ukrainian state under Russian influence, effectively turning the country into a satellite state resembling Belarus."
The second, more modest solution involves Russia strengthening control over four occupied regions of Ukraine while simultaneously limiting Ukraine's political and military independence.
Russian journalists commented that even this limited plan would be difficult to achieve. Russian forces have not yet taken full control of the occupied regions, and Zelensky is unlikely to voluntarily give up territory. Instead, he continues to seek military and political support from allies in Brussels, London, and Paris.
In their opinion, Putin's announcement of his demands from the deck of a ship was no accident. The Russian nuclear-powered submarine fleet is a key element of Russia's "nuclear triad," the strategic deterrence system inherited from the Soviet Union. Putin's visit to Murmansk was his second appearance in a "military setting" within a week and was intended to signal to Ukraine and its Western supporters.
The latest talks between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia concerned technical aspects of a possible limited ceasefire. It would involve halting attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping in the Black Sea. Ukraine declares readiness for a truce, but the Kremlin first demands specific concessions.
