Russia's Iskander missiles outpace Ukrainian defences
Russian forces continue missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Although the Ukrainians are successfully intercepting drones and cruise missiles, ballistic missiles still pose a serious threat and are rarely intercepted. We explain why this is the case.
The Russians are continuously attacking Ukrainian cities, and while the Ukrainians manage well against drones and cruise missiles, the Iskander-M ballistic missiles are a different challenge. On April 6, 2025, out of six Iskander-M missiles launched by the Russians, the Ukrainians managed to shoot down only one.
Meanwhile, for cruise missiles, specifically the Ch-101 and Kalibr, they successfully intercepted six out of nine and six out of eight, respectively. Regarding Shahed drones, out of 109 drones, 93 were shot down or effectively disrupted using electronic warfare systems.
Lack of replacement for Soviet-era systems
The Ukrainian air defence forces have already exhausted their missile resources for Russian S-300P systems and S-300W, and if any remain, they are scarce. Western Patriot and SAMP/T batteries number just six plus two. Additionally, there are older systems like MIM-23 HAWK batteries, but their capabilities are significantly less than the more modern systems mentioned earlier.
These types of systems can only counter ballistic missiles within a radius of about 40 kilometres from the launcher. The eight batteries from the West are not sufficient to rebuild Ukrainian defences to their pre-invasion state, and the Ukrainians have to make difficult decisions about what to protect and what to leave exposed to attack.
Elusive Iskander-M missiles — Here's their secret
The Iskander-M ballistic missiles, powered by a solid-fuel engine, ascend to space before descending, reaching speeds exceeding Mach 7 (over 2,000 metres per second), making them very difficult to intercept.
This is typical behaviour for ballistic missiles for decades, but recent advancements in guidance based on improved INS and GPS systems have reduced the circular error probable (CEP) from hundreds to even a few or several metres.
Only a few anti-aircraft systems worldwide have the capability to destroy such targets. However, it is important to note that a saturation attack using more ballistic missiles than the payload capacity of an anti-aircraft system can breach any defence. The Russians used Iskanders quite often at the start of the war, but the current production rate does not meet demand, so fortunately, they cannot use them as often as they would like.
In the case of Iskander-M missiles, they can hit targets up to 500 kilometres away while carrying warheads weighing about 500 kilograms. These can be conventional high-explosive warheads, penetrating ones for attacking bunkers, cluster munitions whose bomblets can affect a wide area, or thermonuclear, used exclusively for nuclear deterrence purposes.
