Russia's missile ambitions expand with new Oreshnik production
Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) has provided information on the estimated production of the medium-range ballistic missiles Oreshnik, or RS-26 Rubezh, which Russia might manage to produce within a year. The Russians deployed this missile type in an attack on Dnipro on November 21, marking the world's introduction to the Kremlin's latest weapon. The Russians have also announced plans to boost the power of the Oreshnik missiles.
The Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) addressed Russia's capabilities in launching and producing medium-range ballistic missiles. According to representatives, the Kremlin can indeed launch them from two locations on its territory. These locations are "Kapustin Yar," the 4th State Central Interservice Testing Range (SCMP) of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation in the Astrakhan Oblast, belonging to the Strategic Rocket Forces of the Armed Forces of Russia, and the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, approximately 800 kilometres north of Moscow.
Ukrainian intelligence on Oreshnik missiles
HUR also reports that Russia, based on its experiences with producing intercontinental ballistic missiles RS-24 Yars, might produce up to 25 medium-range ballistic missiles annually. However, the Ukrainian service Defence Express points out that it remains unclear whether the production capacity is fully concentrated solely on the new missiles or if the Russians continue to sustain the production of other intercontinental ballistic missiles, including Yars missiles.
Similarly, in a conversation with WP Tech, military analyst Dawid Kamizela from the Defence Zone portal recently shared his views. He noted: "The Russians, concerning the production of ballistic missiles of various classes with longer ranges, are self-sufficient for a relatively simple reason. Their strategic deterrence, just like in the case of countries such as the United States or China, relies on this weaponry." According to him, the serial production of such Oreshnik missiles would amount to a few, maybe a dozen or so units. "This doesn't make sense because, in the case of conventional warheads, the cost-effectiveness ratio would be absurdly unprofitable," he remarked.
Dawid Kamizela pointed out that if we are talking about conventional warheads—not nuclear warheads—similar effectiveness, with significantly lower production costs, can be achieved by using cruise missiles like Kalibr or Kh-101. The Russians seemingly do not concern themselves with the cost-effectiveness ratio, as besides announcing the mass production of Oreshnik missiles, they are not ruling out work on extending their range.
When journalists asked about the possibility of increasing Oreshnik's capabilities, Yury Borisov, head of Roscosmos, stated, "We will do everything the Ministry of Defence demands." Earlier, he had assured that Roscosmos can deliver Oreshnik missiles to the Russian Ministry of Defence in any quantities needed.
"As for high-precision systems, we've already increased the production of this type of weapon several times over the last two years or more. Concerning Oreshnik, we have all the necessary resources to meet the Ministry's demands," Borisov said during an interview with the Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin.
