Russia's push to rekindle gas ties with Ukraine in talks
Russia has presented Ukraine with a memorandum regarding the restoration of diplomatic and economic relations, including gas transit. These proposals were discussed during the second round of talks in Istanbul.
The Russian memorandum, as reported by the TASS agency, suggests the gradual rebuilding of relations with Ukraine, especially in the area of natural gas transit.
Discussions on this topic took place in Istanbul, where delegations from both countries met for the second time. Ukraine requires time to analyze the proposed conditions, as noted by Bloomberg.
The flow of Russian gas through Ukraine was halted on January 1, after Kyiv declined to extend the transit agreement.
This was one of two routes through which Gazprom could deliver gas to Europe. Other routes have been closed or damaged, complicating the energy situation.
The closure of Russian gas transit through Ukraine at the start of 2025 resulted in significant financial and strategic losses for Russia. It is estimated that Gazprom may lose between $5 (CAD 6.9) and $6.5 (CAD 8.9) billion annually due to the loss of the ability to export gas via this route.
Despite these challenges, Russia continues to supply gas to Serbia and Hungary through TurkStream, which bypasses Ukraine.
Russia must pay transit fees to countries through which the pipeline runs, such as Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary. Meanwhile, Turkey, as a key transit country, gains more control over gas supplies to Europe, which may influence price negotiations and delivery conditions.
As noted by Reuters, in May 2025, gas exports through TurkStream increased by 10.3% compared to April. On average, the volume was 46 million cubic metres of gas per day. Total deliveries through TurkStream in the first five months of 2025 amounted to approximately 7 billion cubic metres, which is only a fraction of the previous deliveries through Ukraine up to the end of 2024.
This indicates that Russia is seeking alternative supply routes, which may have implications for future negotiations with Ukraine concerning gas transit.
