Saudi arms deal: Historic promise or mere political theatre?
Washington boasts the largest arms deal in history, but experts are tempering their enthusiasm, reports Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia doesn't have such a budget; there are no specifics, and some provisions repeat past agreements. "It’s great publicity," says Bruce Riedel of Brookings.
The Trump administration announced the signing of a record-breaking arms deal with Saudi Arabia worth 142 billion U.S. dollars. The agreement includes cooperation in areas such as air forces, missile defence systems, maritime security, and modern technologies. However, analysts and former intelligence officials express skepticism, reports Bloomberg.
It’s great publicity — makes it look like this trip was spectacularly successful. But the numbers don’t add up – comments Bruce Riedel, former CIA officer and security advisor, now an expert at Brookings Institution.
A deal full of unknowns
Neither the White House nor the Pentagon has provided details: it’s unclear which systems would be purchased, under what conditions, or when the deliveries would occur. In the past, Trump had already announced significant transactions with Riyadh – like in 2017 when he promised 110 billion U.S. dollars purchases. About 30 billion U.S. dollars of that amount was actually realized.
The State Department reminds us that current active U.S.-Saudi arms agreements amount to over 129 billion U.S. dollars, indicating that many of the previously announced transactions have not been realized.
Doubts are further fueled by the financial condition of the kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s annual defence budget is about 104 billion Canadian dollars. Meanwhile, just in the first quarter of 2025, the country's debt increased by 30 billion U.S. dollars to a historic high. In this situation, questions about the ability to finance a deal worth 142 billion U.S. dollars are justified.
According to experts, such a deal – even without full content – has geopolitical value. After years of cool relations with the U.S., which culminated in Joe Biden calling Prince Mohammed bin Salman a "pariah," Riyadh is seeking ways to rebuild relations with Washington.
"A lot of this is about the optics, but the optics matter," Brian Katulis of the Middle East Institute says. "It’s an attempt to send a message of reassurance after several years of uncertainty in the US-Saudi bilateral relationship on defence cooperation," he added.
There are also questions about the potential impact of the transaction on Israel's qualitative military edge, which the U.S. has long committed to protecting. However, experts—including Dana Stroul from the Washington Institute—emphasize that the general categories disclosed so far do not indicate a disruption of this balance.
According to analysts, while Saudi Arabia is enhancing its ties with the United States, it is simultaneously following an independent course. Yoel Guzansky from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies points out that Riyadh remains cautious in its approach toward Washington, balancing its strategy by easing tensions with Iran and maintaining cooperation with China and Russia.
