Scholz gambles on confidence vote to trigger snap elections
On Monday, a roll-call vote on the vote of confidence for Chancellor Olaf Scholz will take place in the Bundestag. It will be preceded by an address from the head of the government and a discussion.
The Chancellor is counting on the rejection of the motion by the parliament, which would allow for early elections. If Scholz, as planned, loses the vote, he will ask the President of Germany to dissolve the parliament. Frank-Walter Steinmeier will then have 21 days to make a decision.
The President had previously signalled readiness to end the Bundestag's term. The accelerated elections are to be held on February 23rd.
Scholz's decision is an attempt to break the deadlock caused by the removal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the Free Democratic Party (FDP) from the coalition government in early November.
The downfall of the cabinet was caused by a difference of opinion between the SPD and the Greens versus the FDP regarding the budget deficit's size and ways of financing it. The FDP's exit from the coalition led to the government losing its majority. Initially, Scholz intended to wait with the motion for confidence until next year, but opposition pressure prompted him to act sooner.
In the polls, the largest opposition bloc, the CDU/CSU with Friedrich Merz as the chancellor candidate, currently has a decisive lead. For months, support for the two Christian Democratic parties has fluctuated between 30% to 34%, while the SPD garners support from 15% to 18% of voters. The Greens enjoy support ranging from 10% to 14% of the electorate, while the FDP hovers around the 5% electoral threshold.
According to polls, the second strongest party in Germany is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), but all other parties exclude cooperation with this right-wing populist and pro-Russian group.
