Sea level rise looms even at 1.5°C, risking $1 (CAD 1.4) trillion losses
The climate disaster will affect all inhabitants of Earth. As the latest research indicates, even with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, sea levels will continue to rise. Experts warn that systemic changes are crucial to counteract the consequences of climate warming.
An increase in the global average temperature by 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era could have serious and often irreversible consequences for the environment and people's lives worldwide. According to the Science Alert portal, even if global warming is limited to the ambitious level of 1.5°C, sea levels will continue to rise. Research indicates that the rate of ocean level rise has doubled over the last three decades and could double again by 2100, reaching about 1 centimetre per year.
Losses at the level of 1 trillion dollars (1.4 trillion Canadian dollars) annually
Professor Chris Stokes from Durham University emphasizes that a potential scenario where humanity manages to stop the runaway process of climate warming at 1.5°C would be a significant achievement that could save the planet. However, he states that at this stage, we remain powerless against the process of rising sea levels. Without appropriate protections, such as sea walls, an additional 20 centimetres rise in sea levels by 2050 could cause losses amounting to 1 trillion dollars (1.4 trillion Canadian dollars) annually in the largest coastal cities.
Higher water levels pose a threat to entire ecosystems
The most vulnerable areas are coastal regions and islands, which could be partially or completely submerged. Millions of people living in coastal areas may be forced to leave their homes. This process will contribute to mass migrations and social tensions. Rising sea levels will severely impact infrastructure and the economy. It will also affect the availability of drinking water and food.
The natural environment will also suffer as wetlands, river deltas, mangrove forests, and habitats of many species will be flooded, leading to their disappearance. Changes in salinity in coastal waters will disrupt the balance of marine ecosystems and negatively affect fishing, which is the livelihood for millions of people. In the long term, sea-level rise will be one of the most destructive consequences of climate change, leading to permanent geographical and ecological transformations.
Currently, about 230 million people live within 1 metre of sea level, and over a billion within 10 metres. The rise in sea levels is driven by the melting of glaciers and the expansion of warming oceans, which absorb more than 90% of the excess heat associated with climate change.
The latest forecasts for glacier behaviour indicate that to slow sea-level rise, it is necessary to reduce temperatures to around 1°C. Satellite data show that glaciers are more sensitive to climate changes than previously thought.
Systemic changes are needed
To avoid the catastrophic effects of rising sea levels, actions are needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement protective measures. Scientists emphasize that only decisive actions can prevent the worst-case scenarios, and activists highlight the importance of systemic changes that shape the future.
Analysis of historical data shows that in periods with similar temperatures and CO2 levels, sea levels were significantly higher than they are today. For example, 125,000 years ago, sea levels were 2 to 9 metres higher, despite lower temperatures and less CO2 in the atmosphere.
