Sky Shield's rise: Europe's aerial edge over Russia
Sky Shield is an initiative aimed at securing the skies over western Ukraine through the air forces of European NATO members. Implementing this plan will require the deployment of 120 combat aircraft. What forces do European NATO countries have at their disposal?
Sky Shield is not a new initiative; the idea of creating an aerial umbrella over western Ukraine was presented by the United Kingdom back in 2022. Critics of the plan were concerned at the time about escalating the conflict with Russia.
Currently, along with peace talks and discussions about the possible introduction of international peacekeeping forces into Ukraine, the British initiative seems significantly closer to realization than it was three years ago.
How many aircraft need to be sent over Ukraine?
This issue was recently highlighted by the Washington-based think-tank CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies), which calculated that—depending on whether point or area aerial protection is needed—securing Ukraine will require between 48 and 160 combat aircraft. These would be supported by force multipliers like early warning aircraft (AWACS) and air refuelers.
CSIS also noted that deploying a suitable number of aircraft—even if feasible—could lead to faster wear and tear of the air forces of some NATO countries.
The concern is not about high combat losses but rather the fact that the age of combat aircraft in Europe varies. For some, intensive use—expected in Air Policing missions—may mean accelerated depletion of their resources.
Europe modernizes its air forces
Despite these challenges, Europe—even without the United States—has an advantage over Russia when it comes to air forces, especially considering multirole and fighter aircraft capable of engaging enemy planes.
Furthermore, Western countries are undergoing a technical revolution—older models like early variants of the F-16, F/A-18, and Panavia Tornado are being replaced with fifth-generation F-35 aircraft. This process is ongoing, and Europe's advantage with the most modern and valuable aircraft will increase quarterly. The last Cold War-era F-4 models, though still serving in the air forces of Greece and Turkey, won't change this despite their age.
Apart from acquiring F-35s, Europe is independently producing and developing three types of aircraft classified as generation 4+. The French Rafale and the Eurofighter are continuously produced and developed, and their initial limitations (Rafale being initially designed for strike roles and Eurofighter for air superiority) are being addressed with successive variants.
The Swedish Gripen, now entering service in its new JAS 39E variant, is also an aircraft with significantly greater capabilities than its earlier versions.
The state of Russia's military aviation
Russia's military aviation—although statistically seemingly powerful—faces different challenges. It's important to note that assessments showcasing Russian potential are often significantly flawed. They don't account for Russia being a vast country with extensive borders to secure, ambitions to dominate the Arctic, and an unsettled territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands with one of the world's major military powers, Japan.
This means that even though Moscow can direct most of its resources in one direction—in this case, Ukraine—it must also spread some across its expansive territory.
Moscow's aerial focus is the Su-57, which recently received its first foreign order, but these aircraft are produced very slowly—fewer than 30 have been made since the start of serial production in 2019.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the aircraft fleet is in disrepair—production can't keep up with losses. The modernization potential of the MiG-29, Su-27, and their developmental versions is nearly exhausted, and aging has depleted the ranks of quality aerospace industry personnel.
The ongoing war exacerbates these issues—regardless of combat losses, intensive use depletes the aircraft's remaining resources. Consequently, assessing the actual state of Russian aviation is becoming more challenging—the number of multirole and fighter aircraft likely does not exceed about 1,100, and is probably much lower.
It's unknown how many of these aircraft are combat-ready (for NATO, the operational readiness rate for most types of combat aircraft ranges from 40 to 70 percent).
Sky Shield: Objective capabilities versus political will
From this perspective, the numbers seem favourable for Europe; however, the statistics overlook a crucial aspect. Although the air forces of the Old Continent are numerous and modern, despite some exceptions, they are subject to limitations resulting from political issues.
Utilizing their full potential would require consistent cooperation between states whose interests and situation assessments are not always fully aligned. Thus, the future of the Sky Shield initiative will be determined not only by objective capabilities and the limitations of projecting Western power beyond the borders of the EU and NATO but also by political will.
