Talks in Istanbul: Hope and skepticism surround potential ceasefire
Politicians from Ukraine and Russia are planning a meeting on May 15 in Istanbul, which is expected to be a turning point in the ongoing war. However, according to Jan Piekło, former Polish ambassador to Kyiv, the chances of a real breakthrough are slim. "It might be an attempt to create an illusion of readiness for talks, rather than a real peace initiative. Russia is in a combative mood," he says.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that he would be willing to meet Vladimir Putin face-to-face in Turkey after Donald Trump stated that direct talks are needed to determine if peace is possible. The leaders of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland, threatening new sanctions, have pressured Russia to commit to an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine starting Monday. These actions are supposed to result in talks in Istanbul. Will there be a breakthrough?
As Jan Piekło, the former Polish ambassador to Kyiv, points out, Vladimir Putin is not certain to show up in Turkey. "There were leaks in the Russian media indicating that a Russian delegation, possibly with Sergey Lavrov, will come on his behalf," he notes. According to the former diplomat, Putin's statement to Russian journalists about "the possibility of agreeing on some sort of ceasefire" was deliberately vague.
According to Piekło, the situation resembles earlier failed negotiation attempts from 2022-2023. "Back then, they also talked, but Putin's demands, such as recognizing the annexation of Crimea and handing over control of four Ukrainian regions, were unacceptable. The status of Crimea remains a contentious issue. Russia considers Crimea its property, but Turkey has repeatedly declared that it is Ukrainian territory. This means President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will have a challenging task as the host of the talks," comments Piekło.
"Russia's mood is more combative"
The interlocutor openly admits that he does not expect a breakthrough. "Chance for a ceasefire? Maybe. But peace? Not on the terms communicated by the parties," he says. He adds that the success of the meeting in Turkey will depend not only on the composition of the delegation but also on Russia's readiness for real concessions. And so far, this is not visible.
"Russia's recent actions do not indicate a real willingness to end the conflict. After the meeting of Putin with Xi Jinping on May 9, it is clear that the moods on the Russian side are more combative. Russians are making tactical advances on the front, which can only convince them that they do not need to make concessions," assesses Jan Piekło. "It may turn out that Russia will push the same conditions it demanded earlier," he adds.
Zelensky and European state leaders demand that Russia impose a 30-day ceasefire starting Monday, May 12. Otherwise, new severe sanctions will be imposed. The United States, they claim, will support these actions, although Donald Trump has been more cautious in his public statements so far. However, on Monday and Tuesday, Russian drone attacks did not stop, and the ceasefire proposal was rejected entirely.
The British newspaper The Times doubts whether Putin really fears new Western sanctions since Russia is already the most sanctioned country in the world. However, so far, it has not particularly affected the standard of living in Moscow and St. Petersburg—at least not enough to force Putin to end the war.
Russia responds with a famous slogan. it does not bode well
Following his Sunday conversation with Putin, Turkish President Recep Erdogan voiced optimism that the upcoming discussions might pave the way for a lasting resolution to the war. In response, Putin told reporters at the Kremlin that new ceasefire arrangements could emerge from the talks. He also expressed his willingness to engage in dialogue without setting any preconditions, emphasizing his intention to address the core issues underlying the conflict in Ukraine.
The problem is that the Russian slogan "fundamental causes" immediately bodes ill for the outcome of the talks. It is a blend of propaganda threads intended to justify the assault on Ukraine. In short, the Kremlin claims that the conflict is a result of "NATO expansion to the East," "Nazism in Ukraine" (the most absurd claim from Moscow), the need to change the government in Kyiv, as the current authority allegedly violates the rights of the Russian minority, especially in the Donbas and Crimea.
Let's recall that the Kremlin repeats its demands week by week, sometimes formulating them differently, but not fundamentally changing its stance. In their view, the only way to peace is for Ukraine to give Russia everything it wants. Another obstacle to negotiations could be Russia’s proposal that any potential ceasefire be monitored by forces from BRICS countries - including China, India, and Brazil.
Plan talks in Istanbul. "What about Putin? Is he afraid? We'll see"
As we have already informed, Donald Trump called on Thursday for leaders to reach an agreement on a ceasefire. On Sunday, he again appealed to Zelensky and Putin. In response, Vladimir Putin proposed the resumption of negotiations with Ukraine on May 15, in Turkey, without preconditions.
Zelensky responded by emphasizing that a ceasefire should be the first step towards starting negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. He expressed hope that Russia would confirm a ceasefire – "complete, lasting, and reliable" - starting May 12 and assured that Ukraine would be ready to meet then. U.S. President Donald Trump also commented on Putin's statement, writing that it is a "potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine" and expressing hope that the war will finally end. "Let's meet now!!!" Trump wrote in a post on the Truth Social platform.
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct negotiations since July 2022, shortly after the Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At that time, the talks ended with the rejection of a peace proposal that would have forced Ukraine to accept neutral status and renounce any NATO ambitions. Since then, communication channels between the countries have been used solely for agreements on the exchange of prisoners of war and the bodies of the fallen.
"We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow [Monday], to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy," Zelensky wrote on X on Sunday. "I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses," he added.
Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's Chief of Staff, indicated that Ukraine would participate in the talks only if Russia agrees to halt hostilities beginning on Monday. He emphasized that a ceasefire is the essential first step, and President Volodymyr Zelensky is fully committed to ending the conflict and prepared to meet with Vladimir Putin on Thursday. Yermak added a pointed remark, questioning whether the Russian leader would show up or retreat, leaving the answer to time.
Current situation on the front
Russia launched only 10 drones at Ukraine last night; all were shot down – the Ukrainian Air Force reported on Tuesday morning. Earlier attacks involved over 100 drones. Ukraine proposed a 30-day ceasefire to Russia on Saturday, starting Monday, May 12.
On the night of May 12-13, "the opponent attacked using 10 Shahed-type attack drones and other types of decoy drones (launched) from Primorsko-Akhtarsk (in Russia). All 10 Russian drones were successfully shot down by air defence," the statement said.
Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and Volodymyr Zelensky assessed that Russia does not show the will to stop the fighting. "Russia must not camouflage its desire to continue the war with verbal contortions," he said in a statement published by the Ukrainian president's office.
President Zelensky said on Monday that Russia continues attacks on Ukraine and has not responded to the proposal for direct talks in Turkey next Thursday.
