Trade turmoil: How Trump's tariffs disrupt Canadian markets

"It's terrifying," said Alex Smith, a retired marine components specialist, in an interview with "The Seattle Times." The 80-year-old noted that since mid-April, significantly fewer ships have been docking in the port of this city. According to him, this serves as a "system of early warning" about what truly awaits people in connection with the trade war between the United States and China.

"The Seattle Times" explains that a smaller number of ships arriving in the United States means fewer components for manufacturers and ultimately - fewer products on store shelves.

Analysts predict that the situation will worsen from mid-May. That's when US-Chinese tariffs are expected to hit the ports of Seattle and Tacoma with full force. A chain reaction may occur. Jeff Bellerud, COO of the Northwest Seaport Alliance, which manages maritime operations at both ports, warned that local truck drivers are likely to be negatively impacted by the upcoming changes.

In the first half of April, the White House raised tariffs on goods from China to 145%. They include both a 125% rate, the so-called reciprocal tariffs, and a 20% tariff imposed by President Trump at the beginning of this year for alleged fentanyl smuggling.

As a result, there has already been a decrease in the number of freight bookings and voyages to the United States, explains "Fortune."

For weeks, analysts have been warning about the potential fallout from the tariffs, and the effects are now starting to materialize, raising concerns about a looming, gradual crisis. The magazine points out that cargo shipments from China to the United States require several weeks to complete.

Sean Stein from the US-China Business Council recently told NBC News that in a few weeks, products will start disappearing. Empty shelves may resemble the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic when supply chains were disrupted, and new solutions had not yet been developed.

The American asset management company Apollo Global Management believes that the effects of American tariffs will be felt in stages.

• Beginning of May. Within two weeks, consumers will feel that fewer container ships are docking at ports.
• Mid-May. Demand for truck transport will decrease, leading to empty shelves across the country.
• End of May to early June. The start of layoffs in transportation and retail. This is how companies will react to decreased sales.
• Mid-June. This will be the beginning of a recession, estimates Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo.

"Fortune" notes that this is an example timeline that will vary depending on the imported product. The trade war is expected to hit shoe and clothing sales the fastest, as the majority of these goods come to the United States from China. The toy and school supplies market will also suffer.

The situation is so serious that the directors of Amazon, Home Depot, and Walmart went to the White House last week to "plead with Trump and warn against tariffs that could disrupt their operations."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent does not share these concerns. In his opinion, Americans "have several great retailers." Bessent assumes that they have placed pre-orders. "Fortune" notes that in February, there was an increase in imports at the largest American Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach. However, these stocks will eventually be depleted, and imports in May could drop by as much as 20% year-over-year.

"We are looking at the data, and it is obvious that the impact of the trade war has caused many shippers to halt or even cancel shipments," assessed Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, quoted by "Fortune."

Ray Dalio, billionaire and director of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, recently warned about a recession in the United States.