Trump's policies spark European push for nuclear autonomy
The policy of Donald Trump's administration, paired with uncertain security guarantees for allies, especially those from Europe, has ignited a debate about strengthening nuclear deterrence capabilities independently in the region. Experts suggest that the current U.S. approach could lead to an increase in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons to between 15 and 25.
"The US president’s pivot to Moscow and scathing disregard for Nato has prompted old allies — from Berlin and Warsaw to Seoul and Tokyo — to confront what was seemingly unthinkable: how to prepare for a potential withdrawal of their US nuclear shield," writes a British newspaper.
Europe on a new path
Even now, European leaders, led by France and the United Kingdom, are discussing extending the nuclear umbrella over all of Europe. However, experts predict that other countries might try to build their own nuclear arsenal. The Financial Times recalls that under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), five countries are officially recognized as legal nuclear weapon holders.
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These countries are the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia. They possessed nuclear weapons prior to January 1, 1967, which was the criterion for recognition as official nuclear weapon holders under the NPT, opened for signature in 1968 and entering into force on March 5, 1970.
Since the NPT was signed, non-party countries like India, Israel, and Pakistan have developed their own nuclear weapons, and North Korea became the first country to officially withdraw from the agreement in 2003. Growing threats to global security might prompt more countries to follow North Korea's path, and the NPT could lose its status as the foundation of the global nuclear non-proliferation policy. As The Financial Times notes, the world may face the scenario predicted by the 35th U.S. President John F. Kennedy in the 1960s—15 to 25 nuclear countries and a greater risk of a nuclear war cataclysm.
Who has the potential to create nuclear weapons?
Creating nuclear weapons is a time-consuming process requiring clear resources. Such weapons cannot be developed without adequate fissile material—highly enriched uranium (HEU, min. 90%) or plutonium-239 (Pu-239), advanced nuclear technology, including reactors for plutonium production or uranium enrichment facilities, means of delivering the weapons—mainly ballistic missiles and aircraft, but also an extensive scientific and industrial infrastructure. Without laboratories, engineers, and scientists well-versed in nuclear physics, this process may not succeed.
Currently, it is believed that theoretically, a dozen or so countries have the technological capabilities to build nuclear weapons. Japan, Germany, and Iran are the most advanced in terms of "nuclear threshold" potential. In Japan's case, attention is drawn to the large reserves of plutonium from the civilian nuclear program and the highly developed technology. Some experts claim that Tokyo could create nuclear weapons within a few months.
Germany, meanwhile, has a developed nuclear and technological industry and access to highly enriched uranium within civilian programs. Iran is conducting an advanced uranium enrichment program, although it officially states that it is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. South Korea, with its advanced nuclear technology, is also on the list but is politically limited by its alliance with the U.S., as well as Turkey with its developing nuclear program.
