Trump's withdrawal renews doubts over U.S. climate leadership

On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump signed an order for the United States to exit the Paris Agreement again. He had made this decision in November 2019, and the official U.S. withdrawal from the agreement occurred a year later, in November 2020. However, the absence of the United States was brief, as Joe Biden, who won the presidential election, decided at the beginning of 2021 that the USA would rejoin the agreement to combat global warming.

In 2015, approximately 200 countries of the United Nations decided to unite in a joint effort to protect the climate. Climatologists had already sounded the alarm that the last relatively safe global warming limit is 1.5°C, and surpassing it could have severe consequences for humanity. Therefore, countries committed to stopping the rise in average global temperatures at below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and striving to keep it no more than 1.5 degrees.

- The goals of the Paris Agreement remain relevant, but the moves made by the United States certainly do not help in this situation and bring us closer to exceeding the 2°C threshold compared to pre-industrial levels. This is indeed pessimistic, but I suggest we wait and see what actually happens - noted Prof. Bogdan Chojnicki in an interview with WP Tech.

- As experience teaches, the world is not just the United States. Let's remember that in America's history, there have been many failures that do not prove it is the only possible and trend-setting leader. Compare this to electric cars. It's not like if the United States steps away from electric cars, the idea will fail because the USA doesn't always set the direction for global trends. In a global world, there are many more connections and dependencies - added the expert.

Experts are already pondering the consequences of Donald Trump's decision for the United States. David Carlin, writing for Forbes, pointed out that by stepping away from the Paris Agreement, the USA is losing the opportunity to shape the global climate agenda, leaving more room for China and others. They also risk losing a significant position in terms of producing key technologies and products for renewable energy sources, particularly for solar and wind energy, which are becoming increasingly cost-effective sources of electricity.

- Climate change has sparked certain processes, such as the production of devices for generating renewable energy, and those countries that have correctly interpreted this direction are succeeding today. It is worth mentioning that a large number of photovoltaic cells or wind turbines come from China. It should be emphasized that change benefits those who understand it, but there are also those who have not noticed it and continue to operate according to old, established patterns. If America does not properly read the current global reality where climate change matters, it effectively puts itself beyond the margin of general global development - emphasized Prof. Chojnicki.

Climatologists warn that our future depends on the actions taken in the coming years, and indifference to climate change could cost us dearly. In the report "Climate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change Scenarios," which appeared in 2022, researchers reminded that climate change had already played a significant role in mass extinctions, helped large empires fall, and shaped history.

Although their future effects are difficult to assess, many scenarios assume a domino effect that will not be limited to extreme weather events. One of the report's authors, Luke Kemp from the University of Cambridge, noted that the changing climate could also lead to financial crises, conflicts, and new disease outbreaks. These, in turn, could trigger other issues and make it difficult to return to stability after potential catastrophes, such as armed conflicts.