Ukraine's 30‑day ceasefire offer: A new test for Russia
Are the agreements between the USA and Ukraine, reached during Tuesday's negotiations in Saudi Arabia, a first step towards peace in Ukraine? "If Putin does not cease his aggression, there will be no agreement. The aggressor must halt the attacks, not the defender," states Prof. Maciej Milczanowski from the University of Rzeszów.
"In reality, we do not know what was agreed upon behind the scenes. Officially, the current situation is favourable for Ukraine. However, the negotiations continue. A significant step towards a ceasefire was undertaken in Saudi Arabia. Given Russia's negative reactions, we will see how things develop," comments Prof. Milczanowski, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political Science at the University of Rzeszów and security expert.
According to the joint statement by the USA and Ukraine following Tuesday's discussions in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine showed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal for a 30-day immediate, temporary ceasefire. The USA will promptly resume the intelligence and military support exchange for Ukraine.
Following nearly nine hours of discussions at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Jeddah, diplomatic representatives issued a statement confirming Ukraine’s willingness to accept a U.S. proposal for an immediate 30-day temporary ceasefire. The agreement, which could be extended with mutual consent, would require Russia’s acceptance and simultaneous implementation. The statement also noted that the U.S. would convey to Russia that its reciprocal commitment is essential for achieving peace.
The document also emphasized that the United States "will immediately lift the pause on intelligence exchange and resume security assistance to Ukraine."
"For Trump, business is important"
"Remember, Russia is the aggressor in this war. If Putin does not stop his aggression, there will be no agreement. It is the aggressor who must stop the attacks, not the defender. Russia should declare a ceasefire, and Kyiv should respond accordingly. This logic has been reversed. The Kremlin does not desire this ceasefire despite the arrangements," evaluates Prof. Milczanowski.
He highlights that business remains a priority for Trump. "Trump says that humbling Kyiv or empathy in politics is unimportant to him. What's important are business and fulfilling electoral promises. The focus is on who proposes what to whom, rather than apologies or pleas for mercy," comments the expert.
Prof. Milczanowski suggests that Ukraine likely agreed to cede some territories. Kyiv acknowledges it cannot reclaim them. The odds are minimal. To succeed in negotiations, Ukrainians possibly agreed to territorial concessions. Zelensky, though reluctantly, consented to the Trump administration," our source believes.
"They are not toy soldiers"
According to an interviewee, the issue is that Russia wants control over all of Ukraine. "Up until now, the White House has not fully understood this. Putin aims to strip Ukraine of its sovereignty entirely. This is Russia's agenda. Territories serve to humiliate Kyiv and show Putin's effectiveness while suggesting Zelensky's resistance is needless," says the expert.
Prof. Milczanowski indicates that by engaging in negotiations, Ukraine intended to unfreeze the flow of weapons, intelligence data, and satellite images from the USA, which they achieved. "That's why they possibly agreed to territorial concessions. Which ones? This will be unveiled following the USA-Russia talks."
"Remember that from a military standpoint, the Americans' support through weapon supplies and intelligence data are not trivial matters. Every such decision has long-term consequences. The Ukrainians have apologized and have shown humility. This is an extension of goodwill by Zelensky," adds the source.
After the meeting in Saudi Arabia, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that "the ball is now in Russia's court" and added that he anticipates Moscow's consent to the truce as a gesture of goodwill.
"We will present this offer to the Russians and hope they respond 'yes,' say 'yes' to peace. The ball is now in their court. The president's main goal is to end the war, and today Ukraine made a concrete move. We hope the Russians will reciprocate," stated Rubio. "If they say no, unfortunately, we'll learn what the obstacle to peace is," he added.
"In these negotiations, traditional politics are at play. Now there is dialogue with Trump. Whoever understands this faster will negotiate better terms for ending the war," concludes Prof. Milczanowski.
Let us remind you that following the talks in Saudi Arabia, Russia announced it would make its own decisions regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Moscow previously stated it was ready for a ceasefire if Ukraine renounced NATO membership and accepted the incorporation of regions taken by Russian forces into the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department conveyed, "President Donald Trump is determined to end the war as soon as possible, and that all parties must take actions to ensure lasting peace."
