Ukraine's demographic crisis: War fuels exodus and birth decline

The aggression by Russia in Ukraine has worsened the already critical demographic situation of the country. Back in 1990, when Ukraine regained independence, the population stood at 52 million, a number that has never increased since then. Negative natural population growth and large-scale labour migration have been long-standing issues. A UN report even ranked Ukraine among the countries experiencing the fastest population decline.

Just before the full-scale war, Ukraine's population had dropped to 42 million, and by August 2023, it had decreased to 36.3 million. Out of this, only around 31.5 million Ukrainians lived in areas controlled by the government in Kyiv, with the remainder in regions occupied by Russia. According to research by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, approximately 29 million people currently reside in Ukraine. This significant decline is largely due to the mass migration of Ukrainians fleeing the war, which has added to previous years' labour migration.

Equally concerning, and possibly worse for population growth, is the significant change in the gender and age structure of society. As many as 17 million Ukrainians are not economically active. Of these, 8 million are retirees, and fewer than 5 million are children under 15. The small number of young people reaching working age presents a formidable challenge for Ukraine. Within the next five to seven years, there will likely be a workforce shortage, with retirees outnumbering workers.

The number of young men of reproductive age has also significantly decreased. The war has only worsened this problem. Before 2022, the average life expectancy for men was 65 years. By 2024, this average had dropped to just 57 years, which is about 17 years shorter than for women.

According to various estimates, about 8 million people have left Ukraine due to the war. Among them, the majority, nearly 60%, were young women of reproductive and working age. A staggering 83% of them have higher education or are pursuing studies. One-third of the refugees are children. Ukrainian sociologists indicate that the longer the war lasts, the less likely these families are to return to the country.

This is understandable. The prolonged conflict, the destruction in the country, the economic fragility of the state, and the numerous challenges facing returnees effectively discourage such actions. Over three years of the conflict, many Ukrainians have managed to settle abroad.

In the year preceding the full-scale war, Ukraine's fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman of childbearing age. By 2023, it had dropped to 0.9, and last year it fell further to 0.7. In 2023, only about 187,000 children were born in Ukraine, and in 2024, this number dropped to 161,000. Meanwhile, in 2023, approximately 496,200 Ukrainians died, and a year later, around 495,000.

The sharp drop in fertility was primarily influenced by military actions and uncertainty about the future. Approximately 8 million Ukrainians remain internally displaced, often treating their displacement as a temporary situation. Many of them reside in communal apartments, dormitories, or other temporary accommodations.

When people have lost their homes, jobs, and future security, starting a family becomes a lower priority. Oleh Gladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, explained in an interview with Channel 24 that even benefits for having children will not significantly help.

Gladun stated that to increase the birth rate in Ukraine, it is essential to create adequate living conditions, which is challenging during wartime. According to the Institute's research, an effective labour market and wage levels are the main factors influencing decisions to have children. However, the government only implemented the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine program in September of last year, set to extend through 2040.

This program is more of an analysis of the current situation and a roadmap for actions to improve demographics. So far, there have been no legislative steps. This year, the Ministry of Social Policy plans to "develop practical steps towards Ukraine's demographic balance."

The grim state of Ukrainian demographics directly impacts the mobilization capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For this reason, President Volodymyr Zelensky was initially hesitant to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25. Preserving young men is crucial for Ukraine's future. Ultimately, the challenging situation at the front forced Kyiv to increase the pool of individuals for mobilization.

Formally, Ukraine can mobilize around 5 million people. However, considering the need to preserve the demographic situation, Kyiv realistically counts on a maximum of 2-2.5 million people, with about 1.05 million already drafted. An opportunity to improve the situation would involve increasing conscription within Ukraine and bringing back draft-age men who left the country after the war began. Of nearly 700,000 who ended up beyond the western border, about 200,000 meet the requirements of the new mobilization law.

In the long term, reluctance to return after the conflict might pose a problem for Ukraine. Research conducted by the Institute for Demography and Social Studies suggests that only about 40% of respondents plan to return to Ukraine. Each year, there is a noticeable decline in return intentions.

In March of last year, the UN estimated that 65% of refugees intended to return. Immediately after the full-scale war started, this number was as high as 84%. The longer the conflict endures, the less likely people will be willing to return. Oleh Gladun believes success would be achieved if half of the emigrants return. In this scenario, the question of who will rebuild the country remains open.