Ukraine's strategic vulnerability: ISW warns of Russian threat

The American think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), points out that the current layout of the front line does not give the Ukrainian army the appropriate capability to effectively repel Russian offensives. According to the Polish Press Agency, a ceasefire could give Russia time to prepare a larger offensive, posing a serious threat to Ukraine.

Analysts from ISW note that the Russians are intensifying the construction of infrastructure, including roads and railways, to strengthen connections with the occupied territories of Ukraine. These actions aim to consolidate Russian control over these areas. In the event of a ceasefire, Russia could prepare a large-scale offensive, including a crossing over the Dnipro, which could threaten cities like Zaporizhzhia.

Mike Waltz, a security advisor under former U.S. President Donald Trump, stated on Fox News that Ukraine might receive security guarantees in exchange for territorial concessions. However, the specifics of these guarantees were not detailed. Waltz emphasized that Washington would consider "realities on the battlefield" in diplomatic discussions regarding the end of the war.

ISW stresses that Russian forces are close to Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, which necessitates the rapid delivery of additional arms to Ukraine by Europe and the U.S. If a ceasefire were to freeze the current front line, significant European forces would be necessary to defend against future attacks. Recapturing strategic territories by Ukraine could reduce the costs of peace for Kyiv and the West.

Despite negotiations, Moscow has no intention of yielding on the issue of the seized territories. The Kremlin opposes the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine and cannot imagine Kyiv joining the alliance. This position of Russia remains unchanged, further complicating the situation on the front.

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