Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian munitions hub spark concern

Following attacks on Russia's oil industry, Ukrainians continue to strike other sectors of the Russian industry using drones. Recently, after targeting distilleries and chemical plants producing explosives in Tula, they have now aimed at the nitrocellulose factory in Kazan, located about 1,000 kilometres from the Ukrainian border.

Several buildings were hit, but the extent of the damage remains unknown. However, this suggests that after months of a drone attack campaign, Russians still face challenges in securing all critical facilities in their deep rear. They are compelled to choose between leaving such facilities undefended or reallocating some equipment and personnel from the front lines.

In Kazan's case, at least one Pantsir-S1 system was active, as evidenced by the presence of burned-out boosters from the two-stage 57E6 missiles in the area. Nonetheless, this was insufficient, and at least several drones from the "Beaver" family, UJ-22 "Airborne," or "Rubaka" managed to get through.

Nitrocellulose is the main component of most gunpowders used in ammunition production. It can be the primary ingredient in gunpowder (known as single-base) or one of several components in multi-base gunpowder. Without gunpowder, there is no ammunition for any rifled weapon, as it is through its combustion in a precisely defined manner that pressure is generated to propel a projectile out of the barrel of a rifle, automatic cannon, tank, or howitzer.

Although so-called composite powders based, for example, on hexogen have been developed in recent years, nitrocellulose remains crucial for many manufacturers. Additionally, the production process is highly challenging because even the smallest changes in the composition of the gunpowder can render the ammunition ineffective or even deadly for the operators.

For example, too weak a gunpowder will result in a lower muzzle velocity for the fired projectile, which in artillery will lead to too short a range. Conversely, a charge that is too strong can cause the barrel or, for instance, the gun's breech to burst.

It's also worth noting that the Russians currently cover 60 percent of their ammunition needs with supplies from North Korea, as local production capabilities are insufficient. While it may be possible to increase, in the short term, the production of cast shell casings or bombs, doing so for explosives or gunpowder is much more challenging.

For this reason, any successful strike on such centres will significantly impact production capabilities. Furthermore, Russians must allocate units to protect these centres, which could otherwise be deployed in Ukraine.