US absent from London talks as kyiv rejects crimea proposal
On Wednesday in London, the scheduled high-level talks on peace in Ukraine will not take place as planned. The level of the meeting has been downgraded. The U.S. will not be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, due to Kyiv's refusal to recognize one of the key conditions. Does this mean the White House is trying to definitively withdraw from negotiations?
According to earlier announcements, the foreign ministers of the U.S., France, Germany, and Ukraine were supposed to attend the talks in London. The absence of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been confirmed by the White House.
Unofficially, it is said that this is a reaction to President Volodymyr Zelensky's declaration, which firmly rejected a key point of the American ceasefire proposal—recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea.
"Ukraine does not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. It’s beyond our Constitution," Zelensky said during a Tuesday press conference. A meeting with the participation of foreign ministers will be held at another time.
The U.S. will be represented by General Keith Kellogg, President Trump's special envoy for Ukraine. The State Department explains the absence due to "logistical issues," but observers see this as a clear signal of a lack of progress and frustration in Washington. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to halt efforts to end the war if no progress is achieved in the negotiations.
The stance of the U.S. was criticized on Tuesday by the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, who stated that they have not utilized all the tools available to them to exert pressure on Russia.
Kallas noted that Kyiv and its European allies hoped Washington would take a stronger stance against Moscow. She emphasized that it would be a mistake for the U.S. to consider the issue of recognizing annexed Crimea as Russian territory as part of a peace agreement. According to her, the EU will never recognize the peninsula as Russian. "Crimea is Ukraine," Kallas added.
According to Mariusz Marszalkowski, an expert from the Defence24.pl portal, forcing territorial concessions on Ukraine and imposing other prohibitive conditions proposed by Russia will result in resistance from Kyiv.
"That's not how it works"
Trump has underestimated Zelensky from the start while bargaining with Russia. Essentially, he only made concessions to Putin. When he then comes to Ukraine with proposals, he is surprised that Kyiv does not accept their ideas. The American administration seemed to think it could come to an agreement with Moscow and the matter would be settled. That's not how it works. Especially since Zelensky plays hard and has no intention of backing down says WP Mariusz Marszalkowski, an expert from Defence24.pl.
And as he emphasizes, the Russians have very good negotiators.
Looking at their system or state character, and also that despite waging war for over three years, Putin is still in control of his country. We do not see signs of rebellion or rift in Russian society. That gives Moscow fuel and momentum in negotiations. The Kremlin holds the bargaining chip. The American administration should be prepared for this, and it is evident that it wanted a quick end to the war, which was part of Trump’s electoral promise, evaluates Mariusz Marszalkowski.
And as he recalls, the issue of Crimea was the main point raised by Ukraine until the outbreak of the war in 2022.
"Kremlin's logic"
Kyiv constantly reminded the world of the illegal occupation of the peninsula by the Russians. Crimea was a symbol. After the full-scale invasion, the situation changed a bit. Even though Ukraine maintained its sovereignty and independence, it lost much territory, especially in four regions: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The situation has turned from symbolic to practical. Regaining Crimea's independence is much harder today, says WP Mariusz Marszalkowski.
But as the interviewee emphasizes, Zelensky will not agree to the annexation of Crimea, which according to the constitution is still Ukrainian territory. He will not agree, seeing the conditions imposed on Ukraine.
Stopping the fighting on the front line and the takeover by Russians of territories where their soldiers are currently stationed is problematic. There is also concern about the takeover of control by the USA over the de facto largest nuclear power plant in Europe—the Zaporizhzhia plant. Plus, a resource agreement favourable to the United States that does not exclude USA-Russia cooperation. So, let's give everything up, agree to the conditions proposed by the White House, and then end the war. It's Kremlin logic. Ukraine will not agree, claims the expert from the Defence24 portal.
In Marszalkowski's opinion, recognizing the annexation of Crimea could mean political suicide for Zelensky, but it would also be a legal breach of the Ukrainian constitution.
According to "The Guardian," the United Kingdom attached great importance to the meeting planned for Wednesday, with delegations from France and Germany also expected to participate. However, the downgrade of the discussion rank occurred after leaks suggested that Russia is willing to give up its territorial claims over three Ukrainian regions it only partially occupies, in exchange for the United States recognizing the annexation of Crimea.
