Black Sea ceasefire hinges on Russian sanction relief
According to a statement released by the Kremlin, a ceasefire in the Black Sea amidst the conflict with Ukraine can only take place after lifting sanctions, permitting Russia to resume its food and fertiliser exports. These conditions were not included in the US-Russian agreement, notes the BBC.
On Tuesday, following three days of separate discussions with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Riyadh, the White House announced that both sides agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. The US also agreed to aid Russia in facilitating the export of agricultural products and fertilisers and to help Ukraine with the return of children taken by Russia.
Russia hopes for sanction lifting
According to the British broadcaster, the agreements between the US and Ukraine and between the US and Russia contained similar provisions. These included commitments to ensure safe navigation and to "eliminate the use of force." The documents also included the parties' consent to "develop measures to implement the agreement to ban strikes against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine."
The BBC reports that while President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed somewhat satisfied, he regretted that the prohibition was not unequivocal. The Ukrainian leader also managed to obtain a provision that the United States will "remain committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children."
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However, a document published by Russia soon after the agreements were made in Saudi Arabia "muddied the waters," as the BBC evaluates. It stipulates that the Black Sea ceasefire would only come into effect once sanctions on Russian banks, insurance companies, ports, and ships are lifted. This implies the Kremlin views the agreement not as a revival of the so-called Black Sea grain initiative — from which it withdrew in 2023 — but as a chance for the West to rescind a considerable number of sanctions imposed on Russia.
This would require time and thus delay the ceasefire; moreover, not all the steps demanded by Russia fall under the jurisdiction of the US. Rejoining the SWIFT system would necessitate European Union approval, as the BBC emphasised.
Furthermore, the Kremlin announced that the thirty-day cease in attacks on infrastructure would be backdated to 18 March and could be halted should one party violate the agreement.
"Fragile steps agreed"
"In other words, what has been agreed is a fragile step towards some diminution of the fighting in Ukraine but with no guarantee of success amid an atmosphere of mutual distrust," the BBC evaluates. "Even if today's agreement were to survive, it is still a long way from the comprehensive countrywide ceasefire the US originally wanted," the analysis reveals.
According to the BBC, the most crucial aspect is not announcing ceasefires, but "if and how it is implemented."
"Will both sides implement the provisions and adhere to them? The answers to these questions will disclose much about what the parties genuinely desire. Do they want a ceasefire that will transform into lasting peace, or do they just want to negotiate while trying to gain an advantage on the battlefield?" summarises the BBC.
