India's water ultimatum keeps tension boiling with Pakistan
Despite the ceasefire agreements, India has not ceased its threats to limit water supplies to neighbouring Pakistan. "Terror and talks cannot go together; water and blood cannot flow together," said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in last week's speech.
The ceasefire agreed upon last week after India's airstrikes on targets in Pakistan marks the first step towards de-escalating tension. Still, the fundamental disputes regarding the Kashmir region remain unresolved.
India has not relinquished its access to the upper course of the Indus River as leverage against Pakistan. Let's recall that India withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty, officially using access to water as a strategic tool.
Following the attack by militants on tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in southern Kashmir on 21st April 2025, where 26 people were killed, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi instructed officials to expedite the planning and implementation of projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers, the three water bodies in the Indus system mainly intended for Pakistan's use.
Water and blood
India accuses Pakistan of supporting the activities of the jihadist militant group Lashkar-i-Toiba. Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi clearly stated that "water and blood cannot flow together."
There are now reports that India has a plan to expand dams and canals that could increase water extraction from rivers, hold it, and consequently impact Pakistan's agriculture and energy sector. The country also has the capability to release water at any moment, potentially flooding Pakistan.
Reuters reports that one of the key projects involves doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River to 120 kilometres.
The canal runs through India to the agricultural region of Punjab in Pakistan. It was constructed in the 19th century, even before the treaty regulating access to water for both countries was signed.
India has the right to limited water withdrawal from the Chenab for irrigation needs, but expanding the canal, which experts say may take several years, would allow redirecting even 150 cubic metres (about 5,300 cubic feet) of water per second, more than three times compared to the current approximately 40 cubic metres (about 1,400 cubic feet) - writes Reuters based on four sources who have seen the documents.
