Putin’s long game: Strategic standoff with Trump over Ukraine

On Thursday, Vladimir Putin spoke on the US-Ukrainian agreements regarding a potential truce in Ukraine. He assured that he supports the truce, but noted that Moscow is concerned about a "lasting peace." He stated that this can only be achieved by addressing the "root causes of the crisis." However, he did not specify what he believes these causes are. Putin also suggested that the proposed 30-day truce might provide Ukraine with the opportunity to organise a new mobilisation and receive freshly delivered Western weapons. Consequently, Russia is expected to base further negotiation steps on the situation on the front lines.

After the Russian leader's speech, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke. Zelensky assessed that "Putin, of course, is afraid to say directly to President Trump that he wants to continue this war, he wants to kill Ukrainians." In his opinion, Putin is deliberately delaying the response until a point when making "normal decisions" is "impossible." This sentiment is similarly shared in Ukraine regarding Putin's declarations.

- I think that now Vladimir Putin's game with Donald Trump has started. The Russian dictator will attempt to extend the negotiation phase leading up to the ceasefire and the potential end of the conflict for as long as possible. Putin at the Kremlin said "yes" to Trump, but he has different intentions - says WP Crimean political scientist Nedim Useinov, an expert from the think tank The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF).

And as he emphasises, Putin did not refuse Trump so as not to offend his pride.

- The American president utilised this in the media, acknowledging that good promises came from Putin. And it appeared that all parties were satisfied - our source assesses.

Useinov assesses that the key issue is the Russian leader's declaration of continued military actions.

- Putin boasted about successes on the front, including forcing Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, which will now enable the Russians to deploy significant forces to Donbas. He also "passed the ball" to the Ukrainian side, presenting unacceptable conditions for Kyiv. Now, he waits for Trump's move towards Ukraine - says the Crimean political scientist.

According to the Crimean political scientist, Putin's strategy may last until Russia attempts to close the Donbas border and seize the entire region.

- Later, he may focus on the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russians also consider their lands. Then, with Ukraine on its knees, he will try to impose peace on his own terms. This is Putin's mindset. Whether he will succeed is unknown. However, we certainly do not have any prelude to a quick ceasefire - believes Useinov.

He adds that everything now depends on how Trump acts.

- If he remains consistent with his statements, he will soon see through Putin's game, uncover it, and consequently introduce stricter sanctions and implement new arms deliveries to Ukraine through his administration - says the Crimean political scientist.

The Crimean political scientist reminds us that we must avoid a situation similar to the one with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during Trump's first presidency.

- Trump initiated discussions with Kim regarding North Korea's nuclear programme, made several gestures, claimed a temporary victory, announced major success in the media, but in reality, the warming of relations did not occur. In regimes like North Korea or Russia, dictators remain in power practically for life. In the United States, a president's term is "only" four years - comments Useinov.

- Remember, for Putin, Trump is a temporary phenomenon, whose presence in the White House he wants to exploit for Russia's advantage, to gain as much as possible. Today Trump is here, but in four years, he may not be. And Putin will still be there - sums up our source.