America's nuclear wake-up: Catching up in missile technology
Russia, North Korea, and China may pose a threat to the world with their land-launched, modern long-range ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the United States is still reliant on its old, 50-year-old LGM-30 Minuteman missiles. The USA did possess modern ballistic missiles but decided to abandon them. Now, they are striving to catch up.
The American nuclear arsenal is akin to a technology museum. Just a few years ago, the computers responsible for overseeing the intercontinental ballistic missile launchers were using archaic data carriers, like the 8-inch floppy disks developed in 1972.
Although by mid-2019 they were finally replaced with modern data carriers, the weapons in the underground silos remained unchanged – LGM-30G Minuteman III missiles. These rockets were introduced into service in the early 1970s and are, hence, currently over 50 years old.
LGM-30G Minuteman III – a 50-year-old pillar of Western security
Minuteman III is a three-stage solid-fuel missile weighing over 31 metric tonnes and measuring slightly over 18 metres in length. Minuteman offers a range of approximately 13,000 kilometres and a flight speed reaching Mach 24 (contrary to Putin's claims that only Russia has such fast missiles). CEP, or circular error probable indicating accuracy, is about 180 metres in this instance.
Since the LGM-30G Minuteman III missile carries a nuclear warhead with a yield of up to 475 kilotons (the bomb dropped on Hiroshima had a yield of about 16 kilotons), high accuracy is not crucial. The missile was designed to destroy cities or industrial centres on the other hemisphere, not precise targets.
The basic technical specifications of the Minutemen are comparable to modern rockets – most intercontinental and intermediate-range missiles have similar dimensions, mass, or range. However, modern ICBMs have a significant advantage in terms of a greater ability to penetrate anti-ballistic defences.
Although specific technical solutions are usually classified, higher chances of penetrating enemy defences can be achieved by using MIRV warheads with numerous sub-warheads and decoys released in the final phase of flight, employing various types of lures, or masking the launch of the missile.
Electronic warfare also has a role, using active jamming, or even attempting to deactivate radars over a large area with an electromagnetic pulse.
LGM-118A Peacekeeper and nuclear trains
The Pentagon understood the weaknesses of the Minutemen decades ago. That's why, in the 1970s, the USA developed a successor to this weapon – the LGM-118A Peacekeeper missile. This four-stage rocket weighed over 80 metric tonnes.
Compared to the Minuteman, the Peacekeeper offered greater accuracy, the ability to carry up to 11 sub-warheads, and what's known as a cold launch. This entails the missile not launching directly from the silo but being ejected from it (usually with pressurised gas) to a height of tens of metres. Only then, in the air, is the engine ignited.
It was planned that the Peacekeeper would not only be placed in stationary silos but also on mobile launchers, which are harder to locate and destroy.
With this in mind, a whole system of rail-based launchers named the Peacekeeper Rail Garrison was developed. Trains armed with 50 missiles were to move continuously across the railway network or hide in tunnels, coming out only to launch the missiles.
Ultimately, this solution was not implemented, but the stationary variant of the Peacekeeper entered service in the 1980s. It remained in service until 2005, when the USA decided to withdraw and destroy all such missiles. Earlier, in the early 1990s, work on the light, intercontinental ballistic missile designed for mobile launchers, MGM-134 Midgetman, was abandoned.
ICBM with conventional warheads
One proposal for using the decommissioned ICBM class missiles – without nuclear warheads – was for global, rapid attacks with conventional warheads. Missiles capable of striking any corner of the globe within half an hour were to be used during the so-called war on terror.
Russia did not consent to the use of ballistic missiles in such a manner at that time. Moscow argued that the launch of a missile – even without a nuclear warhead – could be interpreted as the start of a nuclear war.
It is noteworthy that on 20 November 2024, Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnieper with a missile – probably – RS-26 Rubezh. Although this missile is classified as an IRBM (intermediate-range), and thus has a shorter range than an ICBM, in practice, Russia did what it managed to discourage the USA from doing – by invoking the global security system.
The future of American strategic deterrence
At present, the United States is attempting to rebuild its strategic deterrence potential, supported by three key arms programmes.
These include the programme for building Columbia-class strategic submarines (formerly SSBN-X), stealthy B-21 Raider bombers, and the next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile, LGM-35A Sentinel.
Work on it – as the winner of the GBSD (Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent) programme – has been conducted since 2020 by the Northrop Grumman corporation. In terms of concept, the Sentinel is to be similar to the Minuteman – it will be a light and relatively simple missile, equipped with a single W87 mod 1 nuclear warhead (though technically adapted for carrying three).
As stated by Air Force Global Strike Command commander Gen. Anthony Cotton in 2022: "This system will be a highly resilient and capable deterrent that will bring global stability to us and our allies for decades to come."
The programme, which is currently estimated to cost €153 billion, is delayed by at least two years – it was intended for the first Sentinels to enter service in 2029 or 2030, gradually completely replacing all Minuteman missiles. The LGM-35A Sentinel missiles are expected to remain a pillar of American nuclear deterrence until 2070.
