Are the EU's sustainable aviation goals crashing before takeoff?
This is a significant ecological fraud of the EU, warns the head of the world's largest airline association. From this year, carriers must use aviation fuel with a 2% blend of SAF, produced from sources such as used cooking oil. The problem is that it’s as scarce as hen’s teeth, so prices have soared.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to be the leading means of reducing CO2 emissions from air transport in the European Union. It is produced from materials such as used cooking oil, sea algae, biomass, or hydrogen. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) calculates that it could help reduce CO2 emissions by 80%.
Until now, its use has been voluntary, but as of 1 January 2025, the EU will introduce a requirement for a 2% blend of SAF in aviation fuel. - The European Union's requirement for a 2% blend of SAF in aviation fuel has managed to raise costs but has not contributed to increasing its production, warned Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, in New Delhi.
Sustainable aviation fuel is up to three times more expensive than its conventional counterpart, Jet-A1. Meanwhile, fuel costs account for about 25-35% of all airline operating expenses as we have already reported on money.pl, there is a vicious circle in this market. Sustainable fuel is expensive because it is scarce, and it is scarce because airlines were uninterested due to its high cost.
It is an outrage that suppliers are charging airlines compliance fees that value SAF at double its market premium over conventional jet fuel. That’s a billion-dollar windfall for fuel suppliers. This is the EU's great green scam - thundered Willie Walsh.
How much SAF is produced in the world today?
Over 300 airlines associated with IATA have adopted the NetZero strategy by 2050. The plan involves achieving this goal through several methods, with the most significant contribution expected from the use of sustainable aviation fuel.
The proportional contribution to achieving this goal by 2050 is expected to be:
- Sustainable aviation fuel - 65%
- Offset and CO2 capture - 19%
- New aircraft technologies, electric and hydrogen propulsion - 13%
- New infrastructure and operational efficiency - 3%
In 2024, 286 million gallons (1 million tonnes) of SAF were produced globally, more than double the amount from the previous year. This accounts for only 0.3% of global conventional aviation fuel production, a mere drop in the ocean. The earlier forecasts, which projected a production of 419 million gallons of SAF by the end of last year, were not met. This year, the production of sustainable aviation fuel is expected to increase to 594 million gallons (0.7%).
Meanwhile, the requirements for the use of SAF by airlines in the European Union will be tightened - from 2030, the blend must already constitute 5% of the aviation fuel tanked at airports.
Where does the "magic" of sustainable aviation fuel come from? From mathematics. - During combustion, CO2 emissions are the same as with fossil fuel. However, with fossil fuels, we extract the raw material from the ground and release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In the case of SAF, the raw material has already absorbed it from the atmosphere (as is the case with used cooking oil), so despite releasing carbon dioxide during the combustion process, it does not add any "new" CO2 to the atmosphere - explained Marjan Rozemeijer from the Dutch airline KLM, in response to questions from money.pl.
A drop in the ocean. "The EU must find another way"
IATA warns that the biggest problem remains sourcing this fuel. It estimates that to meet the 2050 goal, between 3,000 and 6,500 new SAF refineries will be needed, along with creating a global aviation fuel market to replace today's micro-markets with separate regulations.
- While it is encouraging that SAF production is expected to double to 2 million [metric] tonnes in 2025, that is just 0.7 percent of aviation's total fuel needs. And even that relatively small amount will add $4.4 billion globally to the fuel bill, emphasised Willie Walsh.
Today, the largest consumer of sustainable aviation fuel is Europe, comprising both the European Union and the United Kingdom, which have introduced an obligation to use a SAF blend. Previously, IATA had advocated for a similar approach in the USA, where, instead of requiring airlines to use SAF, the current focus is on industry incentives to increase its production.
- This highlights the problem with the implementation of mandates before there are sufficient market conditions and before safeguards are in place against unreasonable market practices that raise the cost of decarbonization. Raising the cost of the energy transition that is already estimated to be a staggering $4.7 trillion should not be the aim or the result of decarbonization policies. Europe needs to realize that its approach is not working and find another way, stated the IATA Director General, speaking at a forum of airlines from around the world.
