Biden rushes military aid to Ukraine before Trump transition

According to two officials from the Biden administration, this plan is the "only option available to the White House to continue sending equipment to Ukraine to fend off ongoing Russian offensives."

However, there are significant challenges. "Usually, it takes several months from the announcement of an aid package to the delivery of ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, so any support provided in the coming weeks will most likely arrive during Trump's tenure. There is a concern that he may halt these deliveries before the equipment reaches its destination," writes Politico.

The main obstacle to quickly transferring this aid is that the US can only send equipment that is already in stock. Although the allocated funds reimburse the Pentagon for the equipment sent, the delivery speed depends on how quickly new artillery shells and weapons can be produced or contracted.

"We have been sending whatever industry can produce each month, but the problem is you can only send these things as they are produced," said Mark Cancian, a former Defence Department budget official now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "The administration could dip into the stockpiles and send equipment more quickly, but it’s unclear the Pentagon would want to do that since it would affect its own readiness," he added.

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz declared that the Pentagon will remain "on track to continue to provide the authorized assistance to support Ukraine" and expects "to have further assistance in the coming weeks."

The remaining funds from the April aid package for Ukraine, valued at €60 billion, are divided into two parts: €4.0 billion allocated for utilising existing stockpiles and €2.0 billion for contracting weapons with American defence firms.

During Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington in September, Biden instructed the Pentagon to allocate the remaining military funds designated by Congress for Ukraine before the end of his term.

"The first thing he would do is to roll back assistance to Ukraine," said Jim Townsend, a former senior Pentagon official for NATO and Europe during the Obama administration. "I would expect him to make a big show of that. He’d say ‘promise kept,’ but he’s going to halt it early, I’m certain of it," he added.

A significant issue remains Biden's decision not to allow Ukraine to use American weaponry for attacks on Russian territory. This has been a source of tension for months, as Kyiv has repeatedly but unsuccessfully sought permission. White House and Pentagon representatives stated that using long-range missiles on Russian territory would not provide a decisive advantage on the battlefield and would only exhaust weapons that Ukrainians should use against Russian forces in Ukraine.

There is still significant Republican support in the Senate for continuing aid to Ukraine. Senator Roger Wicker from Mississippi, likely to become the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, sent Biden a letter urging him to expedite equipment deliveries for Ukraine and increase American production before the end of his term to strengthen Ukraine before upcoming battles rapidly.

Trump's criticism of war support for Ukraine also prompted allies to allocate about €45 billion from interest on frozen Russian assets for loans to Ukraine, which can be used for reconstruction and arms purchases. The Biden administration promised Ukraine about €19 billion of this amount, but the fate of this promise, like many others, is now in doubt.

Trump's representatives have been visiting allies in Europe and embassies in Washington for months, presenting various plans, from intensifying weapon deliveries to Ukraine to completely halting aid if peace is not reached.

Allies, like Ukrainians, know that no plan is final until Trump decides, and predictions about his preferred policy remain mere speculation.

Trump has declared for months that he will end the war before returning to the White House. The remaining billions for military aid will likely serve as bargaining chips with Kyiv and Moscow, which he can allocate or withdraw according to his decisions.