Black Sea ceasefire: A strategic win for Russia, expert warns
Former British Navy officer Tom Sharp believes that the ceasefire in the Black Sea, negotiated by the United States, will be decidedly more advantageous for Russia than for Ukraine.
In an analysis conducted for "The Telegraph," Tom Sharp stated that out of the three countries involved in the negotiations, only one can be satisfied. He pointed to Russia. In his opinion, Russia was defeated in the Black Sea and is merely pretending to be interested in a ceasefire in the region for global optics.
The Black Sea Agreement is a success for the Russians
Sharp highlighted Ukrainian exports and imports conducted via sea routes, which reached a level in 2024 similar to that before the war. According to the expert, this confirms the dominance Ukraine has achieved in the Black Sea. By using marine drones, they have effectively pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet back. Currently, the threats from the Russians around the Black Sea are only the remaining sea mines and sporadic missile attacks.
Thus, the Russians don't have much to offer in terms of halting attacks. However, they can gain significantly from a temporary ceasefire. Sharp stated that the Black Sea Fleet, now given the freedom to move and resupply, may rebuild and pose a threat to Ukraine once more.
"A fleet that is allowed to regroup, replenish and operate to the west without fear can and will be more dangerous, and if the ceasefire doesn’t hold it will be better placed to go back on the attack," assessed Sharp.
Black Sea Fleet decimated by Ukrainian drones
Among the most painful blows dealt to the Russians in the Black Sea is the Neptune anti-ship missile strike that sank the Moskva missile cruiser, the flagship vessel of the Black Sea Fleet, as well as the destruction of the Project 775 landing ship (Minsk) and the Kilo-class submarine 877 (Rostov-on-Don).
The nightmare for the Russians in the Black Sea has primarily been the Ukrainian surface drones, especially the often-used Sea Baby drones. They are capable of carrying up to 850 kilograms of explosives. Kyiv also developed the Magura V5 drone and the Stalker 5.0 drone, which was showcased in 2024 at the international security forum in Odessa.
Some Russian ships were eliminated by tactical missiles (Tochka-U) and cruise missiles Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG, provided to Ukraine by the United Kingdom and France. Due to losses and concerns, the Russians decided to relocate their main base from the occupied Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
