China's naval expansion: Rising power threatens US dominance

According to satellite images from early April, the Chinese "land-based aircraft carrier" built in Wuhan has undergone modernisation. This facility has been known for several years, with its first images published back in 2015.

Originally belonging to the 701st Institute of the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation at the People's Liberation Army Navy Academy, the facility detected by satellites as late as 2009 roughly corresponded to Soviet Kuznetsov-class aircraft carriers. This is not surprising, as they (more precisely, the ex-Varyag, ex-Riga) originally served as models for the first two Chinese aircraft carriers. The Type 001 Liaoning is actually a rebuilt Varyag, and the Type 002 Shandong is its improved development version. The facility, known as the "concrete aircraft carrier," likely still served during the testing of solutions prepared for the Type 002.

In the images of the "docked" "vessel" in Hubei province, we see a large building over 300 metres long and over 70 metres wide and high, with a roof styled appropriately to resemble the deck of a medium-sized aircraft carrier with a ski-jump bow configuration, replacing catapults on many smaller aircraft carriers. Nearby is a mock-up of an island serving as a combat information centre, main command post, and air operation command centre. This mock-up likely performs similar functions and is equipped with features close to those of a real vessel. Most likely, it is also used for testing new communication systems, flight control, various management methods of the aircraft carrier, and its air group, etc.

The test function of the centre was confirmed by its successive modifications. For instance, before 2015, a mock-up (or maybe a test device?) of the H/LJQ 382 radar appeared, later mounted on the Type 003 carrier (current Fujian). There were more similar changes. Additionally, the centre tests the main "argument" of an aircraft carrier, namely the aircraft. For example, in 2021, a mock-up or technology demonstrator of the 5th-generation Shenyang FC-31 multi-role aircraft (now in production as the J-35), which would roughly correspond to the American F-35C, was observed "on deck." It is expected to replace the proven but ageing J-15, derived from the Russian Su-33.

In 2023, unmanned combat aircraft GJ-11 Sharp Sword were noticed on the "carrier's deck." Other machines appear regularly: helicopters, KJ-600 early warning aircraft, etc. Usually, these are just mock-ups, but there are reports of visits by real machines. It is worth noting that the centre itself is continuously developing; for example, in 2015, a land-based equivalent of a large Type 055 destroyer appeared next to the "carrier."

Furthermore, the building also serves an educational function. According to Chinese media, the centre is used for training naval aviators, technical staff, certain deck specialists, and officers. Training using a land-based equivalent of a real aircraft carrier is expected to be cheaper than using a real vessel. It is also likely safer.

In its latest configuration, following a thorough reconstruction, the "vessel" resembles the American CVN-78 USS Gerald Ford aircraft carriers. The width of the deck has significantly increased (which can be noted, for example, by its distance from a nearby road), and the island is differently shaped and shifted toward the stern, as on the Fords.

Several aerial vehicles were observed "on deck," which was likely still under renovation at the time the satellite image was taken. The new shape of the vessel mock-up is interpreted as preparation for "playing the role" of the yet-to-be-built Type 004 aircraft carrier, which is expected to differ significantly from the older ones. It is expected to have nuclear propulsion, electromagnetic catapults, sizes, and displacement close to American Ford-class supercarriers, etc. The carrier is expected to enter service by the end of the decade, with at least four units being built in total. This is, of course, significantly fewer than what the US Navy has, even when counting older vessels (of which the first two are essentially experimental), but the new quality combined with quantitative development will certainly require American admirals to consider Chinese aircraft carriers in their plans.

Beijing began thinking about building aircraft carriers back in the 1970s, along with the state's growing ambitions and capabilities. The work began with acquiring know-how in the form of old ships for thorough examination. The first was the Australian HMAS Melbourne (a Majestic-class light aircraft carrier) and despite being stripped of key equipment by the owners, it provided valuable information about building ships of this class. It is known, for instance, that its steam catapult was copied and tested using a modified J-8IIG (a developmental version of the MiG-21).

Later, they purchased Soviet-era Kiev-class aircraft cruisers: Minsk and Novorossiysk. Over time, both were converted for entertainment purposes, but probably after thorough examination. The key was acquiring the unfinished ex-Varyag from Russia in 1998. Years of planning, reconstruction, and lack of experience meant that the ship, rather experimental, entered service only after 14 years as the Liaoning. Seven years later, the Shandong entered service, a ship built based on experience from rebuilding and operating the Liaoning and significantly improved, yet still lagging behind the Nimitz or Ford classes. Improvements included the design of the ski ramp, an expanded hangar, altered island construction, upgraded equipment, etc.

The Fujian is significantly larger. Although still smaller than American vessels, it is not by much: it has about 80,000 tonnes of displacement, about 316 metres in length, and about 76 metres in width. The ship is equipped with pioneering electromagnetic catapults, making it a flat-deck vessel. The air group is more numerous, probably over 50 airplanes and helicopters (over 30 machines on the 001 and 002). The ship is likely to enter service in 2025, provided that sea trials commencing in 2024 proceed successfully.

As a curiosity, it can be noted that China has at least one more "land-based aircraft carrier," this time American! In 2021, satellite images from Maxar detected a mock-up of an aircraft carrier built in the Taklamakan Desert in the Xinjiang province. This mock-up is movable, placed on railway tracks. According to the US Navy, this movable "land-based vessel" is used to test anti-ship guided missiles, including ballistic DF-21 missiles. It is worth mentioning that this time the mock-ups are very simplified (since mock-ups of other classes of vessels were also recorded), they are essentially flat silhouettes seen from above, without equipment, superstructures, etc. This may indicate a desire to test mainly the detection, tracking, and weapon targeting systems on targets.

The construction of new, increasingly larger aircraft carriers is just one manifestation of the development of Chinese naval might, although the most spectacular one. In the era of rivalry with the USA in the Pacific, China is building more ships: amphibious assault ships (including those the size of smaller aircraft carriers, like the latest Type 076), submarines (both conventional and nuclear-powered), large destroyers, a whole mass of "small ships" or auxiliary vessels. It is already a great force today, but the question remains: do Chinese technologies still lag behind Western ones?

Additionally, the Chinese fleet is tightly contained by US allies, especially Japan and Taiwan, so to break through further, it needs, if not a miracle, then at least a great deal of luck. However, it might perhaps reach Taiwan.