Climate change drives tropical disease surge in Europe
Tropical diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, may become permanently established in Europe due to the spread of tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus), driven by climate change. Scientists warn: this is no longer a future possibility; it's happening now.
Threats that were previously confined to tropical regions are increasingly becoming a significant problem for European inhabitants. Mosquitoes of the Aedes genus, commonly known as tiger mosquitoes, are expanding their geographical range as climate warming progresses, carrying dangerous viral diseases with them.
The latest research from scientists in Germany and Sweden presents a stark reality – if global warming continues unchecked, Europe could become an endemic region for diseases such as dengue and chikungunya.
From sporadic cases to a constant threat
An analysis published in The Lancet Planetary Health demonstrates a clear upward trend. Scientists have monitored disease outbreaks since Aedes albopictus appeared in Europe.
In the past 35 years, diseases like dengue have appeared sporadically, but since 2010, there have been increasing numbers of local infections. The year 2024, which was the warmest on record, witnessed 304 confirmed cases of dengue – more than in the previous 15 years combined.
Heat favours viruses
Mosquitoes carrying viral diseases are increasingly settling in southern Europe, with local outbreaks already detected in Croatia, Italy, Spain, and France. Notably, the interval between the appearance of these mosquitoes and the outbreak of the first local disease cases is shortening.
Researchers attribute this to rising temperatures, which facilitate the rapid development of mosquito populations and virus activity.
Diseases permanently in the European landscape?
A phenomenon once considered exotic might become a daily reality. Scientists warn that the European Union is nearing a point where diseases like dengue and chikungunya will no longer be episodic but will become an endemic problem – constantly present without being imported from other regions.
Future projections: fivefold increase in cases
Assuming the worst-case scenario of climate change, by 2060, the number of dengue and chikungunya cases in Europe could increase fivefold. Experts believe the most effective measure is to monitor mosquito populations and detect infection outbreaks early. However, without efforts to halt climate change and implement appropriate preventive actions, Europe may be unprepared for this escalating challenge.
