Dwindling support for war as Russia grapples with recession
According to the latest research by the Levada Centre, support for the continuation of the war in Ukraine among Russians has dropped to a record low, as reported by the independent portal Moscow Times. The survey was conducted before the Ukrainian attack on Russian strategic bombers deep within the country.
Research conducted by the Levada Centre shows that 28% of Russians support further military actions in Ukraine. This is the lowest since the conflict phase began in February 2022.
The number of people advocating for peace negotiations with Kyiv has increased to 64%. The rise in support is particularly noticeable among women (73%), young people under 24 (77%), and residents of rural areas and smaller towns (67%). Also, people dissatisfied with Vladimir Putin's policies (77%) are more likely to favour peace.
On the other hand, support for continuing the war is higher among men (39%), people over the age of 55 (35%), and residents of Moscow (40%). Among those satisfied with the country's direction, 32% support further military actions.
The majority of Russians (87%) support the idea of peace negotiations with Ukraine. However, 36% of respondents blame Ukraine and European countries for the lack of agreement, 14% point to the USA, and only 3% blame Vladimir Putin's regime.
Peace talks in Istanbul
The survey included 1,613 people from 50 regions of Russia. It was conducted between 22 and 28 May, before Sunday's attack by Ukrainian drones on Russian strategic bomber bases at several locations deep within the Russian Federation, including Siberia.
The raids were a direct hit on aviation resources, including Tu-160, Tu-95, and Tu-22M3 bombers, which are considered less at risk from attacks than land and naval forces. Western experts are still assessing the effects of the raid, but as one high-ranking official told Bloomberg, the damages were "significant."
On Monday, Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul commenced the second round of peace talks, but no breakthrough was achieved. Commentators point out that there are also no grounds to expect such a response, as the Russians are effectively demanding Ukrainian capitulation, and the situation at the front does not justify such demands.
The actions of the Russian Federation bear all the hallmarks of a stalling tactic designed to prolong the time of talks with Ukraine, comments Dr Andrzej Szabaciuk from the Department of Political Theory and Eastern Studies at the Catholic University of Lublin and an analyst at the Central Europe Institute.
- The key reason for such a stance by Russia is to delay the conclusion of peace talks to an indefinite future, thereby avoiding potential sanctions from the United States and the European Union, adds the expert.
According to Dr Szabaciuk, although the action targeted at bombers will not have a "real impact on the course of the conflict," it will positively boost the morale of the Ukrainian army and strengthen the belief among Ukraine's allies in the importance of continuing military and political support for it.
The economic situation in Russia
Meanwhile, Russia's economic situation, contrary to the Kremlin's official narrative, is worsening, according to unofficial reports.
What is specifically happening? The growth of wages for newly hired Russian workers is slowing down. In recent months, the country's economy has lost momentum. War-related expenses have been particularly felt by those living on the edge of poverty, as reported by The Financial Times recently.
Meanwhile, The Moscow Times reported shortly after that the Russian economy is sharply slowing down. Russia's GDP in the first quarter of this year grew by just 1.4%, three times less than at the end of 2022. Economists warned of a recession as the budget sinks into a deficit and low oil prices hit the Kremlin's wallet.
