European allies consider nuclear deterrence amid US policy shift
The policies of Donald Trump's administration, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding security guarantees for allies, especially those from Europe, have sparked a debate on the potential for independently enhancing nuclear deterrence capabilities in the region. Experts suggest that the current U.S. stance might contribute to an increase in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons to between 15 and 25.
"The US president’s pivot to Moscow and scathing disregard for Nato has prompted old allies — from Berlin and Warsaw to Seoul and Tokyo — to confront what was seemingly unthinkable: how to prepare for a potential withdrawal of their US nuclear shield," writes the British newspaper.
Europe on a new path
At present, European leaders, with France and the United Kingdom at the forefront, are discussing the possibility of extending the nuclear umbrella over the entirety of Europe. However, experts predict that other countries may attempt to develop their own nuclear arsenals. The Financial Times notes that, under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), five countries are officially recognised as legal nuclear weapon holders.
Putin WON'T STOP – The West Must Act NOW | Gen. Ben Hodges on Ukraine, NATO & The West
These are the United States, China, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia. They possessed nuclear weapons before 1 January 1967, which was the criterion for being acknowledged as official nuclear weapon holders under the NPT, which was opened for signature in 1968 and came into effect on 5 March 1970.
Since the signing of the NPT, countries that are not parties to it—namely India, Israel, and Pakistan—have also developed their own nuclear weapons, and North Korea became the first country to formally withdraw from the agreement in 2003. However, growing threats to global security might prompt more countries to follow North Korea's path, and the NPT could cease to be the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation policy. As The Financial Times highlights, the world might then confront the scenario predicted by the 35th U.S. President, John F. Kennedy, in the 1960s—the emergence of 15 to 25 nuclear countries and an increased risk of a nuclear war cataclysm.
Who has the potential to create nuclear weapons?
Creating nuclear weapons is a time-consuming and resource-intensive process. Such weapons cannot be developed without a sufficient quantity of fissile material—highly enriched uranium (HEU, at least 90%) or plutonium-239 (Pu-239), advanced nuclear technology including reactors for plutonium production or uranium enrichment facilities, and means of weapon delivery—mainly ballistic missiles and aircraft, but also a comprehensive scientific and industrial infrastructure. Without laboratories, engineers, and scientists proficient in nuclear physics, this process is unlikely to succeed.
At present, it is believed that theoretically, a dozen or so countries have the technological capabilities to construct nuclear weapons. The most advanced in terms of "nuclear threshold" potential are Japan, Germany, and Iran. In Japan's case, attention is drawn to the large reserves of plutonium from its civilian nuclear programme and its highly developed technology. Some experts even assert that Tokyo could create nuclear weapons within a few months.
Germany, in contrast, possesses a developed nuclear and technological industry, as well as access to highly enriched uranium through civilian programmes. Meanwhile, Iran is conducting an advanced uranium enrichment programme, although it officially maintains that it is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. South Korea, with its advanced nuclear technology, is also on this list, although politically limited by its alliance with the U.S., as well as Turkey and its burgeoning nuclear programme.
