Europe's aerial dilemma: Can Ukraine's skies truly be secured?
Thanks to the delivery of Western aircraft, the Ukrainian air force—almost completely destroyed at the start of the war—is gradually recovering. However, the number of available aircraft is far too few to secure the skies over Ukraine. How many planes would it take to ensure the country's safety?
The Washington-based think tank CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies) attempted to estimate the needs. In their analysis, CSIS assumed that the goal of "safe skies" over Ukraine is not to win the war, but to guarantee security during peace negotiations and minimise the risk of Russian provocations.
According to the American centre, even if the Russians enter negotiations, it cannot be ruled out that during talks they might want to test the reaction of the West and Ukraine to an unexpected terrorist attack on targets deep within the country. CSIS presented calculations on how many planes Europe would need to send to Ukraine to secure peace negotiations.
Safe skies over Ukraine
The NATO Air Policing missions over the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania were taken as a starting point. According to CSIS, for Ukraine, the minimum requirement is the engagement of at least 24 aircraft, distributed across three air bases.
Theoretical calculations, however, need to be supplemented with practical considerations. The analysis assumed a fairly conservative estimate that the operational readiness of the aircraft is 50 per cent (for Polish F-16s it approaches 70 per cent, for American F-22s it is 40 per cent, and for F-35s it is 51 per cent). As a result, to ensure the availability of 24 aircraft, it would be necessary to relocate as many as 48 machines to Ukraine.
Europe may not manage without the USA
An even greater number of aircraft would be needed to protect not just points, but most of Ukraine's territory. In such a situation, the engagement of at least 160 combat aircraft, supported by additional early warning planes and aerial tankers, would be necessary.
CSIS notes that deploying such a strong air contingent by European countries is unlikely—it would require involvement from the United States or non-NATO countries. The think tank also points out that if Europe were to decide to create its own aerial umbrella over Ukraine, it would limit the service life of aircraft in many air forces.
