France steps up: Filling the intelligence void for Ukraine

On March 3rd, the Ariane 6 rocket was launched from the Guiana Space Centre. Europe's aspirations to re-enter the space race were not disappointed this time; the launch vehicle performed its mission flawlessly. Ariane 6 successfully placed the French spy satellite CSO-3 into orbit during its first commercial flight, carrying a 3,900-tonne payload.

This satellite, which provides Earth surface image recognition, joins its two predecessors, satellites CSO-1 and CSO-2. The French constellation was developed as part of the international MUSIS programme (Multinational Space-based Imaging System). Despite its international origins, the mission's design, implementation, and oversight were predominantly French.

The MUSIS programme is managed by the French agency DGA (Direction Générale de l’Armement), which assigns technical matters to the French state space agency CNES (Centre National d'Études Spatiales).

In addition to intelligence capabilities, France, where the international company Arianespace is headquartered, also produces space launch vehicles and benefits from its well-located spaceport in French Guiana, near the Earth's equator.

As a result, Paris has substantial assets: in terms of strategic space reconnaissance, it is entirely independent, controlling the design and construction of spy equipment, as well as its transport and deployment in space.

This is a vital complement to other critical capabilities concerning Paris' strategic sovereignty, including control over its nuclear arsenal. This arsenal consists of ASMP cruise missiles and M51 ballistic missiles, developed and manufactured in France. In contrast, the United Kingdom depends on American Trident missiles for nuclear deterrence.

The consequences of Donald Trump's decision to sever Ukraine's access to American intelligence data are undoubtedly severe. This action enforces an embargo on data acquired by the Pentagon and information shared by the United Kingdom.

This is due to an informal alliance known as the "Five Eyes", which connects Anglosphere countries that were once British colonies. The coalition includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Moreover, Trump's actions extend beyond military intelligence. At his behest, Kyiv has also lost access to commercial satellite images provided by the American company Maxar Technologies.

This decision is a precise and painful blow. While Ukraine currently leads the world in tactical-level reconnaissance, primarily using drones, its capabilities for higher-level strategic reconnaissance are limited.

The key factor here is the size of the American satellite constellation. NATO collectively possesses around 300 satellites serving various purposes. About 250 of these are American, and a large number of orbital "spies" means they can more frequently cover different regions of the world.

The more satellites there are, the more frequently the data updates are essential for tracking mobile targets such as trains, anti-aircraft systems, or ships docking at ports. For instance, the cruiser Moskva encountered danger as it entered the range of missiles launched from the Ukrainian shore.

Besides the 250 American satellites, the rest of NATO controls about 50, of which 15 are French. Alongside the three optical reconnaissance satellites in the CSO series, three CERES satellites are tasked with signals intelligence. Ukraine also has continuous access to data from commercial satellite companies outside the USA, such as the ICEYE constellation.

Data from lower-level reconnaissance methods, including early warning aircraft, is also vital.

France operates four E-3 Sentry aircraft independently from the 14 NATO AWACS. It is also enhancing its signals intelligence and airborne reconnaissance capabilities and has ordered SIGINT aircraft built with French-made Dassault Falcon 8X planes.

While France's capabilities are less extensive than those of the United States regarding the number of satellites and aircraft, it maintains full sovereignty over reconnaissance operations. France utilises suitable equipment and manages its design, construction, and deployment.

Thus, Paris can freely use the intelligence it gathers and share it with partners as needed without being limited by the decisions of the US president. This is excellent news for Ukraine.