India-Pakistan air strikes intensify: Nuclear tensions rise
In response to the terrorist attack on 22 April, during the night of 6-7 May, India's air force conducted strikes on targets in Pakistan. The attack was viewed by Pakistan as an act of war. What military capabilities do both countries possess, and what is known about their nuclear arsenals?
On the night of 6-7 May 2025, the Indian air force targeted facilities in Pakistan. According to India, the attacks were aimed at the infrastructure of terrorist organisations, with raids on nine facilities in total.
Pakistan confirmed strikes on six targets, mostly located near the border with the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir. It also reported shooting down five Indian aircraft involved in the raids – three Rafale, one MiG-29, and one Su-30. India did not confirm these reports.
In addition to the air force strikes, India applied pressure on its neighbour by temporarily halting the flow of water from Indian territory into Pakistan for a few hours before the attacks.
The conflict between India and Pakistan has continued for nearly 80 years (the first war over Kashmir began in 1947), manifesting in various forms – from diplomatic actions to isolated incidents (such as the shooting down of planes), missile and air attacks, and limited territorial ground skirmishes.
The escalation of tensions is particularly concerning as, despite India’s superiority, both countries are regional powers with large armed forces and both possess nuclear weapons.
Indian Armed Forces
India's armed forces, comprising approximately 1.1 million soldiers, constitute the second-largest army in the world after China's. Its arsenal includes a mix of Soviet and Russian equipment, such as T-72 and T-90 tanks, indigenous designs (like the unsuccessful Arjun tank or Tejas aircraft), as well as Western equipment – including the Rafale aircraft ordered from France and South Korean K9 howitzers.
A key asset for India is its navy. The country constructs modern destroyers and frigates through its own industry, possesses two aircraft carriers, and is building a third. Crucially, alongside numerous older submarines, India independently constructs Arihant-type submarines with nuclear propulsion, capable of launching submerged ballistic missiles.
Pakistan Armed Forces
Pakistan's military is smaller than India's, with about 550,000 soldiers. However, Islamabad is vigorously modernising its armed forces, aided by close cooperation with China.
Chinese weaponry constitutes the most modern equipment within the Pakistani armed forces. Alongside older American F-16s, there are JF-17 and J10 aircraft, MBT-3000 tanks and their local Haider variant, SH-15 self-propelled howitzers, and HQ-7, HQ-9, and HQ-16 air defence systems.
The most valuable component of the Pakistani navy is also of Chinese origin – eight Zulfiquar and Tughril-class frigates. Despite technical issues sometimes encountered with Chinese equipment, the Pakistan-China partnership continues to thrive.
This cooperation is demonstrated by Islamabad's recent orders for Chinese submarines and additional frigates. In most cases, some of the equipment is procured from China, with some locally produced in Pakistan through technology transfer.
Nuclear Arsenal of India and Pakistan
The global concern centres not so much around the conventional armaments of these two nations but their nuclear arsenals. Both embarked on their nuclear programmes in the 1970s. India's first nuclear explosion occurred in 1974, and after a series of test explosions in 1998, India declared an end to its tests. The Indian nuclear arsenal is estimated to comprise just over 100 warheads.
Pakistan conducted its first nuclear detonation in 1998 and has not joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Since then, it has expanded its arsenal to numbers comparable to or slightly surpassing India's.
Both countries possess ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Pakistan's missile industry's pinnacle is the Shaheen-III intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), capable of hitting targets up to about 4,500 kilometres away.
India's strength in this regard is the Agni missile family. The largest, Agni IV, has a range exceeding 5,000 kilometres. This means that the entire territories of both India and Pakistan fall within reach of some of the nuclear delivery systems they possess.
Nuclear Delivery Systems
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal consists of ballistic and cruise missiles and an air component – nuclear bombs can be deployed by Pakistani Mirage V and F-16 aircraft.
India has the advantage of possessing a complete nuclear triad. In addition to land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, India has aircraft capable of delivering nuclear bombs (Mirage 2000 and Jaguar) and submarines armed with ballistic missiles.
When could India and Pakistan use nuclear weapons?
India and Pakistan view their nuclear arsenals differently. For New Delhi, nuclear weapons are seen as a means of retaliation, whereas for Islamabad, they are regarded as a guarantee of survival. Thus, the larger and more powerful India follows a policy of no first use, declaring that it will not be the first to employ nuclear weapons.
Conversely, Pakistan, being smaller and militarily weaker, adopts a different stance. Potentially unable to halt the Indian armed forces in a full-scale conventional conflict, Pakistan's nuclear doctrine retains the option of first-use of nuclear weapons.
