Kremlin's most significant draft in eight years fails to meet military goals

The Kremlin has announced a success: a record 150,000 recruits have joined the army during the recently concluded spring draft. Putin promises that, at least for the first year, they will not be sent to the front. However, this is not enough to achieve the planned goal.

The draft lasted from 1 April to 15 July and was the largest in eight years. This is not surprising, as the number of people drafted into the army has increased with each subsequent draft. For example, last year's spring draft saw 147,000 Russians recruited. The current record will likely be surpassed soon.

The number of recruits has increased, but so has the age of the conscripts. In July 2023, Putin raised the upper age limit by three years—from 27 to 30. Nonetheless, this has only slightly improved the personnel situation. Losses mean that the army's numbers are still insufficient, and its needs will continue to grow. The army aims to have 1.5 million soldiers eventually.

Meanwhile, half a million soldiers in Ukraine are engaged, and just over 600,000 remain to protect the country. Some garrisons in the Caucasus and the Far East are already stripped of soldiers. Therefore, changes in the age of conscripts were not the only measures taken. Amendments to the military registration regulations in Russia also include a ban on leaving the country for those who receive a call-up to the army.

Losses on the front easily explain drastic moves by the authorities. In a report from 25 May 2024, Ukrainians claimed that they had eliminated (killed, wounded, missing, and captured) 505,000 Russians since the beginning of the conflict.

Putin is currently facing the highest casualty rate in his army. According to estimates provided by the British Ministry of Defence in mid-July, more than 70,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in May and June alone.

"In 2024, Russian losses remained high, and in May, the average daily personnel losses for Russia were over 1,200—the most since the start of the war," the report states.

Despite this, the Kremlin does not plan to send conscripts either to occupied territories in Ukraine or to the front. Currently, the trainees are to rebuild the army's mobilisation capabilities, and soldiers who wish to remain in the army and have signed long-term contracts will be sent to guard borders and perform non-combat tasks, at least for the first year.

According to analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War, the decision is driven by fears that public dissatisfaction with how the war is being conducted may increase. Therefore, the army still relies on mobilising reservists over 30.

The Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defence are trying to avoid new mobilisations. Contrary to the impression given by propaganda, this is not widely approved. Therefore, the authorities use every possible means to incentivise potential recruits. About 30,000 Russians are lured in with these offers monthly.

The secret lies in the money—just to sign a contract, volunteers receive approximately €2,250. In addition, volunteers across the Federation receive up to 50% compensation for rent and housing costs and are exempt from property tax.

Additionally, individual regions add their own bonuses. For example, the authorities of Tatarstan offer the equivalent of approximately €500 to those who persuade friends or relatives to join the army voluntarily. The recruits themselves are to receive a one-time incentive equivalent to about €16,200.

Foreigners, mainly from former Soviet republics and Africa, are also being lured. Putin has signed a decree expediting the granting of Russian citizenship to foreigners who sign at least a one-year contract for military service or in "military formations." Russian passports are also given to the immediate family members of volunteers in such cases.

According to official data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 63,600 people applied for a residence permit, of which 55,400 were accepted. The number of applicants has decreased compared to 2021—there were over 80,000 then. The main reason for the decline in interest, cited by consular departments, is the situation on the front.

The tactics used on the front, which are known to Russians, also do not increase the number of willing applicants. When the lack of experienced command staff became noticeable, the simplest attack methods were used, i.e., frontal assaults on fortified Ukrainian positions preceded by artillery preparation. Due to the number of casualties, these assaults are called "meat attacks." When a potential soldier imagines this, no incentive will help.