Limited impact of F‑16 delivery: Ukrainian skies brace for change
The delivery of F-16s was anticipated to alter the dynamic of the conflict in Ukrainian skies, but there are too few to make a noticeable impact. Nevertheless, their deployment goes beyond mere propaganda. Ukrainian pilots are gaining invaluable experience against a formidable adversary.
In early August 2024, during the Air Force Day celebrations, Volodymyr Zelensky proudly introduced the first multi-role F-16s to arrive in Ukraine. Ruben Brekelmans, the Dutch Minister of Defence, echoed this sentiment, describing it as a "significant step forward," while Gitanas Nausėda, the President of Lithuania, referred to it as a "step toward victory." However, it was overlooked that only a few F-16 fighters arrived, rendering the narrative of war-changing prospects overly optimistic.
The situation could have been different if allies had provided aircraft to Kyiv several months earlier, as requested by the Ukrainians. The Netherlands promised 42 planes, with the first arriving in October. Denmark plans to deliver 19 aircraft, the first of which are expected in Ukraine by the end of 2024. Belgium recently announced it would supply 30 planes, but their delivery will be staggered over several years.
The latest support promises come from Norway, which intends to deliver 22 planes, with 12 combat-ready, and the rest possibly used for spare parts.
The primary goal for F-16. Changes have occurred here
The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Colonel Oleksandr Syrsky, stated that the main task of the F-16s will be to shoot down Russian aircraft and missiles. However, since the Russians are preserving their limited number of strategic bombers and avoiding combat zones or even the border, the F-16s are left to perform their secondary task.
The primary goal of the new aircraft is, therefore, to intercept and shoot down Kh-101 cruise missiles, which are much easier to neutralise using aircraft than with anti-aircraft artillery.
The greatest advantage of multi-role fighters is their high mobility, which makes them an important complement to other air defence systems. The British used a similar strategy in the past, creating the Air Defence of Great Britain. During German V-1 missile attacks, fighters from ADGB effectively intercepted missiles that had bypassed ground-based anti-aircraft systems. The operating principle has changed little since then; only the available technologies have evolved.
Early warning stations detect missiles launched from Russian Federation territory, and then controllers direct the F-16s to the appropriate sectors where they begin hunting enemy missiles using onboard radar systems.
Sometimes, shooting isn't worth it
Detecting a cruise missile is only the beginning. It still needs to be accurately targeted and shot down. The obvious solution is to use air-to-air guided missiles. However, these are extremely expensive.
For example, a medium-range air-to-air guided missile, the AIM-120 AMRAAM, costs around €804,000. While the cost is justified when shooting down Kh-101s, which cost around €12 million, it would be uneconomical for unmanned Shahed 136 or Geran 2 drones, costing up to €47,000. Moreover, Western allies have not provided a significant number of AIM-120s.
The AGR-20 APKWS missile was developed for such purposes, based on Hydra-70 rockets — unguided rockets used since World War II. Over the years, dozens of different versions and variants of Hydra-70 have been produced. The infrared-guided version, the AGR-20 APKWS, was added to the U.S. Navy's arsenal in 2012.
During modernisation, the ammunition was equipped with a module containing laser sensors and movable control surfaces, allowing it to be guided towards the target. Unlike actively guided missiles, APKWS missiles do not require targeting before launch but rely on a semi-active laser guidance system activated after launch.
Consequently, the U.S. Armed Forces obtained relatively inexpensive rockets, costing about €28,500. More importantly, the missiles are carried in multi-guide launchers that hold 19 missiles each. An F-16 can carry up to four such launchers, allowing it to carry up to 76 missiles on a single mission. According to Ukrainian sources, planes usually carry half of that load.
Waiting for the super plane
Expanding the operational range of the F-16s will only be possible once the Swedish early warning and airspace control aircraft Saab 340 AEW&C Erieye, which Stockholm announced, arrives in Ukraine. The arrival of this aircraft, by increasing radar reconnaissance range, would enable Ukrainians not only to hunt cruise missiles but also their carriers.
The Ukrainian General Staff does not specify which systems have been used to shoot down enemy aerial threats, except for the F-16.
On the night of 15 November, out of 144 drones and cruise missiles launched at Ukraine, the F-16 shot down ten. Considering the scale of the air raid and the very small number of F-16s deployed, the outcome achieved by Ukrainian pilots is quite impressive. In terms of the ratio of shootdowns to aircraft used, the F-16s outperform the MiG-29.
Ukraine is awaiting the delivery of more aircraft and, importantly, the training of more pilots, of which they are in critical short supply. Combat losses are significant, and training a new pilot takes several years. Increasingly, voices within Kyiv are expressing the need to possibly hire mercenary pilots. Kyiv might soon have no other option.
At the start of the conflict, fighter clashes were more frequent, but this year the Russians have managed to shoot down only two Ukrainian aircraft in air combat. In May, Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Vasyliuk was shot down in a Su-27, and the pilot perished. In August, Oleksander Migulia successfully ejected from a MiG-29.
The small scale of aerial combat is the result of a change in tactics. Fighters rarely venture near the frontlines. The situation may change when Ukrainians receive additional F-16s equipped with long-range missiles. However, this will take several months.
