Moldova's pivotal choice: EU future challenged by Russian tactics

The voting in the referendum is described as a "historic event" because it is intended to confirm the country's trajectory towards closer ties with the EU.

Although the majority of Moldovans support joining the EU, and since Russia attacked Ukraine, openly pro-Russian politics have ceased to be mainstream in Moldova, Kremlin-oriented forces remain active, playing on pro-Russian sentiments and primarily resorting to illegal actions.

European Commission spokesman Peter Stano stated on Friday, two days before the presidential elections and referendum in Moldova that Russia is trying to undermine democracy in the country. He emphasised that Moldova's people will choose between a European path and Russian imperialism. He stressed that this is a pivotal moment.

Just before the elections in Moldova, Russian hybrid activities have intensified, aiming to sabotage the policies of the pro-Western government. These activities include information campaigns and illegal funding on an unprecedented scale, directed towards pro-Russian activists and politicians and used for buying votes.

In early October, police reported that in September alone, Russia illegally sent more than €13.5 million to Moldova for voter bribery. The money was channelled into the country through intermediaries from Russian bank accounts, and activities were coordinated via bots on Telegram.

"I trust that Moldovans will never allow themselves to be deceived," said Prime Minister Dorin Recean in a Thursday speech ahead of the upcoming elections and referendum on Sunday. He warned against intensified attempts of electoral bribery by pro-Russian forces. "Dear citizens, do not fall into the trap of such banditry," he appealed.

Kremlin-linked groups are exploiting the pro-Russian sentiments of some Moldovan citizens to manipulate the topic of EU accession. In an election clip, three Russian entertainment stars sing "their heart is Moldova".

Recently, an election clip was published featuring the highest-paid Russian entertainment stars – Filipp Kirkorov, Nikolay Baskov, and Stas Mikhaylov, Kremlin favourites and supporters of the war in Ukraine.

Kirkorov and Baskov, dressed in Moldovan folk costumes, sing in Romanian the song "Inima mea e Moldova," which is significant to Moldovans, about "their heart being Moldova." The backdrop includes picturesque Moldovan landscapes and the amusement park Orheiland, which Sora built. When the EU is mentioned, images of Ursula von der Leyen with a stern expression, scenes from gay pride parades and protests on European streets or photos of migrants storming the EU border appear.

"We need an independent Moldova. We do not need the EU. Vote 'no'" – reads a caption under the photo of wheat fields and a smiling girl with a wreath on her head.

According to polls published before Sunday's referendum on incorporating eurointegration into the constitution, over half of Moldovans wish to vote for joining the EU.

According to the Watchdog survey, published on Thursday, 55.1% of respondents would answer "yes" in the referendum, while 34.5% would be against changing the constitution. Meanwhile, 63.5% of those surveyed support joining the EU. 76.3% of respondents expressed their willingness to participate in the presidential elections and referendum.

"However, anti-EU sentiments in some regions, particularly in Gagauzia, are worrying," said international affairs specialist Rodica Panta. "In traditionally pro-Russian autonomous Gagauzia, these voices are the reverse. According to a recent poll, an average of six out of ten people are against the EU."

The paradox is that "in Gagauzia, the EU has invested tens of millions of euros, and yet the aversion to the EU is strongest there." "Indeed, one can find plaques with the EU flag and informational boards there, but most are in Romanian, a language not spoken there. The official narrative of the local authorities is that everything good comes from Russia," explained Panta.