NATO launches Baltic Guard to counter Russian sea threats

On Tuesday during a conference in Helsinki, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the establishment of the Baltic Guard. At the summit held in the Finnish capital, representatives of eight regional countries and the European Commission were present. This initiative aims to enhance security in the Baltic Sea using frigates, patrol aircraft, and other types of armaments.

"This is a justified reaction from NATO countries, responding to growing security challenges in the Baltic region. Particularly in the area of the Baltic Sea, there is a need to intensify - within the framework of the Baltic policing mission - patrolling and guarding critical infrastructure. NATO should monitor and guard it 24/7," Mariusz Marszałkowski, an expert at the Defence24.pl portal and a graduate of internal security at the Faculty of Command and Naval Operations of the Naval Academy, tells us.

Recently, there have been a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, including damage to energy and telecommunications cables on the seabed.

On Tuesday alone, the Swedish defence minister announced that Sweden detected damage to another cable in the Baltic. This time it's the Nordbalt, which connects Sweden to Lithuania. Indications suggest a Chinese ship is involved.

Earlier, in the Swedish economic zone in mid-November, two telecommunications cables were severed, one connecting Finland to Germany and the other Sweden to Finland. The Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3, whose captain is reportedly linked to Russia, is suspected of causing the damage.

At the end of December, EstLink2, an undersea electrical cable under the Gulf of Finland, was cut. Finnish authorities suspect that the damage might be related to the tanker Eagle S, likely part of the Russian shadow fleet.

Simultaneously, four submarine data transmission cables were also damaged. Three between Finland and Estonia and one leading to Germany.

"We must continuously consider various kinds of threats from Russia in the Baltic. The first is the shadow fleet, consisting of ships with unclear ownership. They transport Russian oil, trying to bypass sanctions and generate income for Moscow. Recently, they have been anchoring in the Baltic to damage infrastructure on the seabed. Whether intentional or not, that's another matter," comments Marcin Marszałkowski, an expert of Defence24.pl.

He emphasises that the shadow fleet can be relatively easily identified, detected, and monitored.

"These are large ships, usually container ships and tankers. They sail slowly and, with Baltic monitoring, can be tracked. It would be problematic if the NATO patrol mission proves effective and manages to deter the shadow fleet, only for units specialising in sabotage to emerge, e.g., involving divers or diversionary groups. Their aim could be to destroy underwater infrastructure or cut cables on the Baltic seabed," forecasts the interlocutor of Wirtualna Polska.

In his opinion, controlling every, even very small, shipping unit is highly complex. Meanwhile, nearly all can carry equipment for divers, submersibles, or remotely operated devices.

"They can also transport explosive loads, which they may place on the Baltic seabed for remote detonation," Marszałkowski says.

He recalls that Russia has the Institute of Deep-Sea Special Operations, part of the Russian Ministry of Defence, specifically supervised by military intelligence.

"This Institute operates several miniature underwater vessels designed for sabotage. These units are stationed near Saint Petersburg, posing a constant threat to NATO countries in the Baltic. As a result, the risk of incidents in the Baltic Sea remains high. Should military means be involved, we are speaking of significant escalation," Mariusz Marszałkowski believes.

Before flying to the summit in Helsinki, Prime Minister Donald Tusk reminded that already on 27 November, Poland proposed in Stockholm to strengthen control in the Baltic, with the participation of the Baltic states, as part of NATO's activities.

He explained that recurring incidents in the Baltic triggered this. "These incidents were linked to the so-called shadow fleet. These are ships registered ambiguously, primarily for oil transport. All indications suggest it's Russian oil, thus circumventing sanctions," Tusk said.

The model for the initiative was NATO Air Policing, i.e., NATO aircraft controlling the airspace over allied countries. However, the proposed patrol would occur in the Baltic Sea. Tusk indicated that the solutions aim at deterrence but also effectively monitoring who enters the Baltic and their intentions. He mentioned that our country would engage four ships to patrol the Baltic.

"I will emphasise once again that the initiative is correct. We are talking about a mission to protect critical infrastructure. But remember that each day a ship, vessel, or helicopters operate, it is a significant cost for every engaged country. Russia is interested in absorbing and diverting attention in the Baltic. The Kremlin wants to coerce Allied nations to spend hundreds of thousands of pounds or euros at sea—resources that could be allocated for another purpose, e.g., exercises in the Baltic. The Russians want to disperse the forces of NATO countries through sabotage," Mariusz Marszałkowski assesses.

He adds that if Poland wishes to send four Navy ships to the Baltic patrolling mission, significant doubts arise.

"What forces and resources does the Polish Navy have, and what do we plan to deploy? Unfortunately, now the years of neglect by various governments against the navy may come to light. We still have obsolete and emergency equipment, predominantly in repair yards. After all, NATO will be watching our effectiveness, as will Russia. It would be embarrassing if it suddenly turned out that a Polish ship patrolling the Baltic suffered a severe malfunction," Marszałkowski concludes.