Ongoing unrest in Venezuela fuels fears of prolonged conflict

The situation in Venezuela, where unrest persists following the recent elections, "might result in a prolonged social revolt in parts of the country," Professor Katarzyna Dembicz from the University of Warsaw suggested in an interview with WP. President Nicolas Maduro, in his bid to retain power, is forcefully suppressing protests, but he may not be able to control the entire country.

Thousands continued to protest on the streets of Venezuela after it was publicly announced that the sitting president, Nicolas Maduro, was elected for a third term. Adding fuel to the fire, the United States recognised that his opponent Edmundo Gonzalez had won. There have been fatalities among protesters, and it cannot be ruled out that there might be many more.

Right after the elections, one could hope that Maduro would delay the transfer of power, but now it seems that this is heading towards the complete pacification of the rebellious part of society, using force—said Professor Katarzyna Dembicz from the University of Warsaw. It also indicates that there will be regions of the country affected by a longer conflict. Remember, Venezuela and Colombia are accustomed to regions rebelling, and the opposition controls three departments in Venezuela.

In her interview with Wirtualna Polska, Katarzyna Dembicz emphasised that the opposition in Venezuela is divided. Despite finding consensus on a candidate, clear divisions prevent pinpointing a single direction for the current situation to evolve. President Nicolas Maduro knows how to exploit this.

The issue of the election results remains problematic because officially, according to the National Electoral Council, Maduro received 51% of the votes, while his opponent Edmundo Gonzalez got 44%. However, the opposition claims that Gonzalez’s real result was 70%.

- Notice that the ballots were not falsified. That would be difficult, as citizens receive a confirmation receipt after voting - the UW expert pointed out. - However, the electoral commission did not publish partial results from individual districts and commissions. Therefore, it's impossible to verify the claim that Maduro received 51% of the votes. This is why the Carter Center, which previously rated Venezuela's electoral system very positively, declared these elections improperly conducted - she added.