Polish public sceptical of German and French Ukraine agendas

In mid-October, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a five-point victory plan to the Verkhovna Rada, including three classified annexes. The fourth point of the plan focuses on rebuilding Ukraine's strategic and economic potential, which encompasses another classified annex shared with the USA and the EU and includes special agreements with partners.

- Ukraine is offering key partners – the EU, the United States, and our global allies – a special agreement to protect Ukraine's critical resources, to make joint investments, and to direct the necessary economic potential toward our shared growth. This agreement will organically complement and strengthen the existing system of economic pressure on Russia, specifically – all current sanctions, the oil price cap, export restrictions to Russia, and other pressure measures - Zelensky announced.

At the end of September, US President Joe Biden and leaders from 30 other countries signed a joint declaration from the G7 and the EU on the reconstruction of Ukraine, affirming, among other things, their commitments to freeze Russian assets until Russia pays reparations.

At the end of October, a meeting took place in Berlin among the leaders of the USA, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. The topic of discussion was Ukraine, and Poland had no place at the table. Additionally, there were no representatives from other EU and NATO eastern countries.

The main focus of the meeting was Ukraine. The absence of Poland—or a broader representative of Central and Eastern Europe or NATO's eastern flank—sparked a spirited discussion on both sides of the Oder River.

At that time, Wirtualna Polska asked the German government for a comment on the lack of an invitation for Poland. - The German government is in constant dialogue with Poland - assured the German government spokeswoman to Wirtualna Polska, tersely. - We do not comment on reports beyond this topic - she added.

In light of these events, United Surveys, commissioned by Wirtualna Polska, asked Poles: do they believe that Germany's and France's interests regarding the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent reconstruction of Ukraine align with Poland's national interests?

A majority—63.9%—believe that Germany's and France's interests concerning the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent reconstruction of Ukraine do not align with Poland's national interests. Only 22.9% think otherwise.

13.2% of the respondents were unable to give a definitive answer.

Voters of the ruling coalition perceive Germans and French slightly better regarding Ukraine's reconstruction and the end of the war, and our interests. 39% of those surveyed believe that Germany and France are our partners in this matter. However, nearly half of the respondents in this group (48%) disagree with this view.

Opposition voters have a very clear stance. A decisive majority (85%) claim that Germany and France do not consider Poland's opinion when it comes to ending the war in Ukraine and its subsequent reconstruction. Just 12% of respondents in this group think that these countries are our partners in Ukraine-related matters, with none choosing the answer "definitely yes." In this group, the smallest number of "I don't know, it's hard to say" responses was recorded—3%.

For other voters, the situation is similar. 61% of those surveyed believe that Germans and French are not our partners when it comes to ending the war and rebuilding Ukraine and do not consider Poland's opinion. In this group, other responses align with those of opposition voters: also 12% believe that Germany and France have a viewpoint aligned with Poland regarding Ukraine. However, the remaining voters often could not give a definitive answer. 27% chose the response "I don't know, it's hard to say."

The United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska were conducted from 8-10 November 2024 on a representative group of 1,000 adult Poles.