Putin eyes Sumy: Kremlin's new frontier in Ukraine conflict

Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, convened a meeting with officials in the Kursk region, which, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), might be an effort to rationalise plans to capture the Sumy region in northern Ukraine.

In its latest report, ISW stresses that Russian territorial ambitions extend beyond currently occupied regions. Putin may be seeking to secure the Sumy region to compel Ukraine into concessions in future peace negotiations.

The meeting, which took place on 20th May at 8:00 PM GMT, saw the head of the Glushkovsky district authorities, Pavel Zolotaryov, requesting Putin to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region, including the city of Sumy. The acting governor of the region, Aleksandr Khinshtein, mentioned his roots in the Sumy region, emphasising that "this land is not foreign to him."

Sumy, located roughly 26 kilometres from the Russian border, would, should a buffer zone be established, hinder Ukrainian forces from launching artillery and drone attacks on Russian territory. ISW implies that the Kremlin may have orchestrated this meeting to portray Putin as a responsive leader addressing the needs of his subordinates.

Although Russian authorities proclaimed on 26th April the recapture of the entire Kursk region, ISW states that Ukrainian forces still hold positions there, and fighting persists. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed on 21st May that combat operations are ongoing.

ISW evaluates that it is improbable that Russian forces will seize Sumy in the near term, given Russia’s existing struggles in capturing even smaller towns swiftly. At present, only limited Russian units are advancing towards Sumy, insufficient to overtake a city that had a population of 256,000 before the war.

The last city with a population exceeding 100,000 that Russia captured was Lysychansk in July 2022.