Putin leverages front-line gains to strengthen peace terms
- Despite the losses, Russian troops are making progress on the front, and that's why Putin's negotiating position is strengthening. In his style, he tries to impose the conditions for starting talks - says Prof. Krzysztof Żęgota, commenting on Russia's new declarations regarding potential peace talks.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday at 2:00 PM GMT that his country could engage in peace talks with Ukraine, but ruled out direct talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he called "illegitimate". He also mentioned that without military support, Ukraine would fall within two months. - True peace is possible if Russia is forced into it - Zelensky responded.
- Vladimir Putin is always and everywhere ready for negotiations, but only on his own terms. He just had a chance to present them. Talks without Zelensky's participation would confirm Russia's position, the narrative in their propaganda, that the so-called Kyiv regime is illegal. The aim of such statements is to diminish Ukraine's role - comments Prof. Krzysztof Żęgota from the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, an expert in Russia's internal security.
- It's hard to imagine that after what happened, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin would sit down for talks. I think the Russian president will likely try to involve politicians of lower rank than himself in these talks. Only when he gains some satisfactory option will he triumphantly meet with Zelensky and personally accept it - adds the interlocutor of Wirtualna Polska. He emphasizes that the current declarations by politicians are just a show of strength, setting positions before the start of peace negotiations.
- Putin has enormous capabilities to ruin the world, but too small and cowardly a heart to withstand real pressure from leaders. That's why we should act together and decisively – all those who have enough courage to believe in peace and bring it closer with the help of strength – Zelensky replied to Putin's statement.
Russian offensive in Donbas and Ukraine's position
Prof. Żęgota points out that the advances of the Russian army on the front strengthen Putin's negotiating position and give him arguments to dictate terms. In January, despite significant losses of their own, the Russians captured the towns of Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove.
- Slowly but surely they are making progress on the front. And in my opinion, this shapes Vladimir Putin's starting negotiating position. In the event of refusal or difficulty, Russia can choose to continue the war. From their perspective, in six months, the front will move further - says Prof. Żęgota.
He reminds that Putin's Russian conditions were articulated in November and December 2021. These were: Ukraine's neutral status, but at the same time the withdrawal of NATO military infrastructure from Central-Eastern European countries. According to Żęgota, the US administration should balance between a rational approach to talks and the unpredictable element in Trump's reactions.
- If Donald Trump were humiliated at the outset of negotiations, or the Russian side tried to dictate exaggerated terms to him, he might decide on actions and support for Ukraine that we could not have expected earlier - assesses the scientist and Russian affairs expert. - Trump approaches politics as a business, and as a businessman, he does not accept failures or unmet outcomes - he emphasizes.
Negotiations for the war in Ukraine. "The first blows"
On Tuesday and Wednesday, new reports emerged regarding the start of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump, since taking office on 20 January, has been pressuring both sides, demanding the end of hostilities, threatening to tighten sanctions against Russia, and claiming that Zelensky is ready to negotiate an agreement.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Russian state television that the war in Ukraine will end "within two months" if Kyiv does not receive military assistance from Western allies. - They will not exist, they will not survive a month if the money and generally ammunition run out. Everything will end in one and a half or two months - stated Putin.
This is a reference to Donald Trump's suspension of American foreign assistance programmes. As we reported, the US has not suspended military support for Ukraine.
According to some analysts, the Kremlin is once again looking for an excuse not to sit at the negotiation table. - What Russia is doing is just the first blows towards Ukraine. Putin is dragging it out and playing, knowing he still has to strike a deal - comments Dr. Wojciech Siegień, an expert in Russian propaganda analysis and author of the "Blok Wschodni" podcast at Krytyka Polityczna.
- Three years of war have put them at the top of the list of sanctioned countries. The Kremlin realises that halting warfare and a lack of military orders would create an economic crisis of catastrophic proportions. The war tension in society will unleash a wave of social unrest. What to do with a million people engaged in the war so far? - He concludes.
