Putin strategizes as Trump seeks swift end to Ukraine conflict

The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, perceives himself as having an advantage before Monday's phone call with Donald Trump, while European leaders are endeavouring to prevent the U.S. president from hastily reaching an agreement on Ukraine, writes Bloomberg.

Putin is convinced his forces will manage to break through the Ukrainian defensive positions by the year's end and assume full control over the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which Russia claims to have rights over, according to a source familiar with the Russian leader's thoughts, who requested anonymity.

This suggests that Putin is unlikely to offer Trump any substantial concessions during their conversation, causing concern among European leaders that the American president might still attempt to push through an agreement.

Bloomberg reminds us that Trump is pressing for a swift conclusion to Russia's war against Ukraine, which has already entered its fourth year. He believes he will be able to reach a resolution directly with Putin.

The Russian leader, on his part, is not signalling any readiness to end the conflict, as his forces are making slow advances. This causes anxiety in Kyiv and European capitals over potential additional territorial losses for Ukraine.

Speaking at a conference in Tallinn on Sunday, Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment noted that, given the present stage of the war, Russia has little incentive to support a ceasefire.

According to Bloomberg, there is a growing sentiment that American efforts to broker a ceasefire are nearing a pivotal moment, with European officials uncertain whether Trump will intensify pressure on Russia or simply move on to the next issue if these efforts prove unsuccessful. Trump pledged to inform Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and some NATO allies about the outcomes of the conversation with Putin.

Despite discussions about ending the conflict, Putin is prepared for a prolonged war if it proves necessary to achieve his objectives. He is not overly worried about the possibility of further U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg reports, citing two individuals close to the Kremlin.

Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close connections to the Kremlin, stated that while Trump wants Putin to agree to a truce, the Russian leader is strongly against it. However, according to Markov, Putin is also unwilling to end the dialogue entirely. Instead, he is trying to navigate a path where negotiations persist in parallel with ongoing military operations.